Japan replaced nuclear electricity generation by LNG, by imported gas
Japan trends for 2013: Nuclear reactor restarts are on their way
Japan trends for 2013 Japan’s energy sector: Japan has essentially replaced the 30% of its electricity energy supply which was from nuclear power plants, by electricity produced in aging thermal power plants from urgently arranged LNG purchases at very high prices. Prime Minister Abe said that he wants to restart all nuclear power stations, which receive safety clearance by the new Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA), and asks for these safety examinations to be completed within 3 years – however the NRA said, that 3 years is far to short to complete the safety assessment.
Given that any discussion about Japan’s energy mix, and “new” renewable energy (except for water power), liberalization and development of free energy markets were suppressed for many years in Japan, Japan now urgently needs to start innovating many components of the energy landscape including insulation and smart grids, and a new energy mix. PM Abe thinks that it will take about 10 years to settle on a new energy mix for Japan.
Japan trends for 2013: Japan is now waking up to innovation and changes of it’s energy and electricity sector
Japan’s electronics manufacturing sector is about as large as the economy of the Netherlands, but collectively showed no growth and lost money over the last 15 years, and therefore will either fade away, or very urgently needs new business models (see interview on BBC). PM Abe’s push for a lower YEN might soothe the symptoms a bit, but does not solve the fundamental problems. Hitachi’s “smart transformation” are steps in the right direction, but its really too early to tell – also “smart transformation” does not solve Japan’s traditionally low emphasis on software and other non-hard-ware-producing crafts.
Telecoms: Masayoshi Son, master of the midas touch and founder and master mind of SoftBank, acquired what was left of Vodafone-Japan and turned it around successfully within weeks, said reportedly: “I am a man – and want to be Number 1”. Now he aims to apply his midas touch to SPRINT. Expect more acquisitions by Son on the way to Number 1 in global telecoms.
Japan trends for 2013: Energy crisis continues as a result of the Fukushima nuclear disaster
Renewables: Japan’s feed in tariffs are among the world’s highest
Japan trends for 2013: Japan’s energy sector: Prime-Minister Abe announced that he will review the Fukushima nuclear accident before taking decisions on nuclear power, essentially postponing the nuclear issue. Japan’s feed-in tariffs for renewable (new) energy sources are among the highest in the world, about three times higher than Germany’s. While renewables (except for water power) were kept below 1% by an “untouchable” rule in the past, expect the rapid built-up of renewable sources in Japan to continue, initially mainly solar energy, and later wind, geo-thermal and other sources to follow. METI is also working on liberalization of Japan’s energy markets – I would not be surprised if the election results lead to a slow-down of liberalization. (read more in our Japan-Energy-Report, outline here on slideshare).
Japan trends for 2013: Japan’s electronics industry needs “smart transformation”
Electronics sector: as we show in a previous newsletter and in our Electronics-Industry report (read outline on slideshare), Japan’s electronic component makers overall are doing much better then Japan’s electronics conglomerates, but all are in dire need of new business models. We expect winners and losers to emerge. We are impressed by Hitachi’s steps towards “smart transformation”. If successful, Hitachi’s “smart transformation” might become a model for other Japanese electronics conglomerates to follow (watch BBC-Interview).
Masayoshi Son, founder of SoftBank: “I am a man- I want to be Number One”
Telecoms: Masayoshi Son, founder of SoftBank, reportedly said: “I am a man- I want to be Number One”, and he acquired US-Telecom operator SPRINT on his way to become global No. 1 in telecoms. While Masayoshi Son was busy negotiating with SPRINT in the US, KDDI reportedly tried to snatch Japan’s No. 4 operator eAccess/eMobile away, so Masayoshi Son also acquired eAccess/eMobile on the side.
More cash revenue for Google-Play Apps in Japan than in all of the mighty USA
Mobile-App statistics provider AppAnnie recently announced that there is more cash revenue for Google-Play Apps in Japan than in all of the mighty USA. So if you are an App-Developer, and if you like to see good cash revenues, you better focus on Japan first and USA second ;) and 7 out of the Top-10 publishers by revenue on Google-Play apps are Korean or Japanese…
Japan has more FTTH subscribers than all of EU + Switzerland + Norway + Iceland
FTTH (optical fibre to the home broadband): Japan has more FTTH subscribers than all of EU + Switzerland + Norway + Iceland. EU is catching up with Japan, but Japan alone today has more FTTH broadband than all the mighty EU countries added up together. (more in our JCOMM-Report on Japan’s telecom sector).
Liberalization leads to increasing competition and partnerships between Japan’s regional electricity and gas companies
Japan gas companies grow at an annual rate of 4.1% and show steady income
Japan gas companies grow at an annual rate of 4.1% and show steady income, and have developed into serious competitors for Japan’s electricity operators, while also cooperating in electricity generation.
We have added 50 pages coverage of Japan’s very successful gas sector to our Japan-Energy-Report.
Gas companies show healthy income. Electricity operators report increasing losses. Source https://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_energy/
Japan’s gas companies are profitable and grow while electricity operators’ revenues stagnate and descend into losses:
We compared Japan’s gas sector with Japan’s electricity operator sector:
Japan big-4 gas companies’ revenues grew 4.1% per year for the last 12 years, while reporting stable income.
Japan’s 10 regional electricity operators show stagnating revenues, while descending into deep losses.
Japan gas companies grow at an annual rate of 4.1% and show steady income. Increasing competition and cooperation between electricity and gas companies. Source: https://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_energy/
Japan’s gas companies develop into competitors for the regional electricity operators
Electricity operator’s descent towards losses started in 2007, well before the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Source https://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_energy/
Descent into crisis of Japan’s electricity operators started in 2007: Figure above clearly shows that the decent of Japan’s electricity operators started years before the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Therefore we conclude that restarting the nuclear reactors alone will not cure the crisis of Japan’s electricity operators, which for many years have enjoyed a monopoly position, and are now increasingly under attack by competitors including Japan’s very successful gas companies. We added approx. 50 pages analysis of Japan’s gas sector to our Japan-Energy-Report.
Kazuo Inamori (80 years old, born January 30, 1932), Japanese serial entrepreneur, founded Kyocera Corporation on April 1, 1959, founded DDI (now KDDI) in 1984, and turned around Japan Airlines (JAL) during the last two years.
Japan Airlines (JAL) went bankrupt on January 19, 2010, Kazuo Inamori turned around JAL, and JAL went public again on Tokyo Stock Exchange on September 19, 2012, returning substantial profit for the Enterprise Turnaround Initiative Corporation of Japan Fund.
Legendary serial entrepreneur Kazuo Inamori (稲盛 和夫)
Kazuo Inamori used his “Amoba Management” (アメーバ経営) techniques to rebuild Japan Airlines from bankruptcy
Kazuo Inamori is famous for “Amoeba Management (アメーバ経営)”, essentially Amoeba management means divisional accounting, and has been refined for the management of Kyocera and many other companies.
Today Kyocera is divided into about 3000 “amoebas” – applying the amoeba management methods to Japan Airlines
Applying “Amoeba management” to JAL, Kazuo Inamori installed a real time system, to determine the profit of each route and each single flight in real time, while in the past profits (or losses) at Japan Airlines, were calculated months after the fact.
Kazuo Inamori on leadership: “the leader must have a vision and burning determination to carry out the vision whatever the obstacles”, and must communicate aims and targets to everyone in the company.
On nuclear energy:
Japan’s energy / electricity sector is in upheaval, and given Japan’s respect for seniority, given Kazuo Inamori’s standing in Japan, understanding Kazuo Inamori’s opinion is very important for understanding how Japan’s energy landscape is likely to evolve in the future.
“In the past the problems of nuclear energy were hidden from the public, and in the future must be disclosed”.
“It is not possible to maintain the current sophisticated society without nuclear power”. He thinks that nuclear power is a necessary evil.
Financial instability of Japan’s electricity companies started long before the Fukushima nuclear accident
Japan’s electricity companies ran into financial instability long before the March 11, 2011 disaster
It is often assumed that the financial difficulties of Japan’s electricity companies are caused by the shut-down of almost all Japanese nuclear power stations within 13 months of the Fukushima disaster.
This newsletter shows that the financial impact of switching off Japan’s nuclear power stations does not seem to be the major contribution to the financial instability of Japan’s electricity companies.
However, this newsletter clearly proves that Japan’s electricity companies ran into financial instability long before the March 11, 2011 disaster and long before Japan’s nuclear power stations were switched off. The financial instability of Japan’s electricity companies seem to have started in 2004 – about 7 years before the Tohoku Earth-quake, as shown below. Therefore reform of Japan’s electricity industry sector is highly overdue.
Japan’s electricity crisis predates the Fukushima disaster by several years. Source https://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_energy/
Financial instability of Japan’s electricity companies started with the increase of natural gas payments in 2004
Japan’s electricity industry sector is dominated by 10 regional electricity operators, which to a large extent have the monopolies of electricity business in their regions. In exchange, their profits are calculated as a fixed percentage of costs. However, the figure above shows, that this system had become unstable around 2009 following a strong increase of natural gas costs since 2004. The figure above clearly shows that the net profits of Japan’s 10 regional electricity operators started a steady decline since 2007, and dropped firmly into the red in the financial year FY 2010, which ended on March 31, 2011, ie almost entirely before the Fukushima disaster, and about a year before nuclear power stations were switched off in Japan. This argument shows, that the difficulties of Japan’s electricity sector are even more profound than the cut-off of nuclear power stations, and shows that reform of Japan’s electricity sector is long overdue. For details read our report on Japan’s electrical industry sector.
Financial trouble of Japan’s electricity companies started before Fukushima. Source https://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_energy/
Financial instability of Japan’s 10 electricity operators started in FY2007 – several years earlier than the Fukushima nuclear disaster
This figure shows the combined annual net income of Japan’s 10 regional electricity operators for the period FY1999 – FY2011. The figure clearly shows, that combined net after-tax income was extremely stable until 2007, when net income started to drop dramatically, and has been falling ever since, culminating in combined net losses of over US$ 20 billion in FY2011. Losses are expected to increase even further for FY2012.
This figure clearly shows, that the financial instability of Japan’s electricity companies started several years earlier than the March 11, 2011 disaster and well before any nuclear power stations were switched off. More details in our report on Japan’s electricity and energy sector.
Japan switched 30% of total electricity generation from nuclear to LNG
Japan natural gas import replaces all nuclear energy
Japan switched about 30% of electricity capacity from nuclear to mainly natural gas powered thermal power stations within 13 months. We have analyzed Japan’s natural gas imports, which have skyrocketed to almost 2% of Japan’s GDP. Graphics and more details below in this newsletter. Find detailed analysis of Japan’s oil, coal and gas imports in report on Japan’s Electricity and Energy Landscape.
Japan’s natural gas imports skyrocket
Natural Gas (LPG and LNG) imports skyrocket to 2% of GDP
Since Financial Year 2010 (ended on March 31, 2011, a few days after the March 11 disaster) Japan’s natural gas imports have skyrocketed to almost 2% of GDP – while gas imports were around 0.5% or below of GDP until 2003.
There are two reasons for Japan’s skyrocketing payments for LNG imports
increased import volumes to replace nuclear energy by LNG fired thermal power stations, and
a “Japan premium” on the LNG prices, Japan has to pay above world market prices because of Japan’s special situation, and relatively weak bargaining position. Japan is of course under big financial pressure to reduce the payments for LNG imports.
Our report on Japan’s energy sector includes detailed analysis of Japan’s oil, gas and coal imports, and many other data on Japan’s energy and electricity sector, which we continuously update.
What is the financial impact of Japan’s switch from nuclear to fossil on Japan’s electricity industry?
Japan’s electricity operators switched from profits to huge losses
What is the financial impact of Japan’s switch from nuclear to fossil on Japan’s electricity industry? Answer: Japan’s electricity operators switched from about US$ 10 billion/year combined net profits to US$ 20 billion/year losses – far more dramatic than the impact of the Lehman shock. – Selected graphics below in this blog, and detailed analysis in our report on Japan’s electricity and energy industry.
annual net income of Japan’s electricity operators
Electricity operator losses may drive innovation
Losses are caused by high costs of fossil fuels and additional generation capacity brought online, and drive innovation, by forcing operators to look for new solutions to time-shift demand such as smart grids, and smart meters.
net margins of Japan’s electricity operators
Electricity sales revenues were affected much more by the Lehman shock than by switching from nuclear to fossil The figure below shows combined sales revenues of Japan’s 10 regional electricity operators. Sales were strongly affected by the industrial downturn after the Lehman shock in September 2009, and have recovered since. There is no strong effect of the Fukushima disaster and nuclear -> fossil switch on electricity sales:
Because Japan’s electricity operators have monopoly status in their regions, their financials are mainly affected by the economic status of their regions. All were affected dramatically on the sales side by the Lehman shock. This figure also shows that Japan’s electricity industry has been very static for many years. Japan’s Governments recent energy strategy provides for liberalization – executing this strategy will be the challenge.
describes a frog struggling to climb out of a well, slipping back one step on the ladder for each two steps upwards out of the well
Before the Fukushima disaster, Japan’s energy policy, strategy and execution were essentially decided behind closed doors by a small group of (about 100) Japanese people, and while European countries, Canada, USA experimented with electricity liberalization, Japan’s electricity industry structure went unchanged for a very very long time with a rigid top-down structure. However with the Fukushima disaster, Japan’s energy landscape has been brought onto the world stage, catching global attention for the first time.
Two steps forward (actually much more than two steps): Last Friday, September 14, 2012, Japan’s Cabinet released Japan’s new “Innovative Energy and Environmental Strategy”. We have analyzed the full Japanese text of this strategy paper, and you can find a summary on pages 5-23 in our “Japan Electrical Energy Landscape” report.
Most English language press reports focus only on the first few pages which describe a plan to phase out nuclear energy in Japan over the next 30-40 years. However this Government paper contains many other policy measures to reform Japan’s electricity industry and to completely change the principles of Japan’s energy landscape – steps which are long overdue, and where Japan has fallen behind most other advanced countries, because pre-Fukushima, Japan’s electricity industry was functioning “too well” – although at very elevated prices (for detailed analysis, read our report).
The strategy plan announced on September 14, 2012 has not yet created any irreversible facts – although two irreversible facts could soon be implemented: the Government announced a few days ago, that 3 nuclear power reactors should be decommissioned under the new 40-year-limit-rule, Tsuruga’s No 1 reactor (started March 1970), and Mihama’s No. 1 (started Nov 1970) and No. 2 reactors (started July 1972).
One step back: Sept. 19, the Cabinet released a “Kakugikettei” (Cabinet Decision) which is 4 and 1/2 lines long, which says:
We will carry out our energy and environmental policy based on the “Innovative Energy and Environmental Strategy” as decided by the Energy and Environment Council on Sept 14, however we will hold responsible discussions with concerned self-governing regional bodies of Japan and with concerned international organizations, and we will continuously and flexibly verify and adjust our policy. (Kakugikettei, Cabinet decision of Sept 19, 2012, our unofficial translation from bureaucratic official complex Japanese into simplified English, attempting to keep the same meaning).
Note, that this “step back” is not uniquely Japanese: Sweden decided in the 1980s to go zero-nuclear with a Parliament approved schedule, and Sweden’s parliament reversed the earlier zero-nuclear decision, and went back to continue nuclear power in 2010 and renewing or building new nuclear power stations.
Japan’s Cabinet released Japan’s new “Innovative Energy and Environmental Strategy”
Japan’s new energy strategy
Last Friday, September 14, 2012, Japan’s Cabinet released Japan’s new “Innovative Energy and Environmental Strategy”, which the Cabinet is required to produce by law, and which actually contains much more than the plan to work towards a future nuclear power free society.
We have analyzed the full official “Innovative Energy and Environmental Strategy” in the original Japanese version, and we have prepared a 19 page English language summary which you can find on pages 5-23 of our “Japan Electrical Energy Landscape” report
Most English language press reports have focused on the three principles to work towards a nuclear free society
strictly limit the operation of nuclear power plants to 40 years age
restart those nuclear power plants, where the safety has been assured by the Nuclear Safety Commission
no new construction or expansion of nuclear power stations
These principles – if maintained – may lead to the last nuclear power station in Japan to be switched off around 2052, ie about 40 years from now.
However, Japan’s new energy strategy framework paper contains much more
five policy packages concerning: the nuclear fuel cycle, human resources and technology development, cooperation with the global community, regional measures, the nuclear industry system and system for compensation of damages
measures for reducing electricity and energy consumption with targets until 2030 for two different economic growth scenarios
measures for promoting investment in renewable energy, with renewable energy generation targets until 2030
targets for electricity cogeneration until 2030
electricity power system reform, including unbundling of generation, transport and retail with the promotion of vibrant electricity markets
opening, strengthening and neutral electricity grid network, fair and accessible to all electricity producers
and most of all, a planned transition from passive electricity bill paying consumers to aware and active market participants who as much as possible generate their own electricity, and who instead of paying electricity bills, earn money from electricity they generate
In particular, the strategy plan states explicitly:
“…. it is indispensable, that electricity grid networks can be used by anyone, and to have competitive electricity markets”.
When trying to predict the far future, whether Japan will actually go completely non-nuclear or not, keep in mind that Sweden has decided to go non-nuclear in the 1980s, and has reversed this decision around 2010.
Currently only two of Japan’s remaining 50 nuclear reactors are in operation. It will be interesting to see if and when the safety of additional reactors are approved, and how rapidly the announcement dramatic deregulation and structural reform of Japan’s electricity system will be implemented, and how much of the announced policy steps might be reversed – or accelerated – by future Governments.
Joe Oliver, Minister for Energy and Natural Resources of Canada
Was asked today to be one of a group of about 5 Japanese experts to brief the Minister for Energy and Natural Resources of Canada, Mr Joe Oliver. We were asked to keep the conversation off-the-record, so I can’t write about the meeting.
Minister Oliver visited Japan leading a delegation of about 100 Canadian Energy sector leaders, CEOs, Government Officials, and the confidential briefing and discussion about Japan’s energy sector among a small group of about 5 Japanese experts, the Ambassador and Minister Oliver, was followed by a large lunch with about 100 Japanese and Canadian energy leaders and CEOs.
Mr Joe Oliver photograph image credits:
Author: Rocco Rossi
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Joe_Oliver.JPG
License: This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.
Image credits
Mr Joe Oliver photograph image credits:
Author: Rocco Rossi
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Joe_Oliver.JPG
License: This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.
You are free:
to share – to copy, distribute and transmit the work
to remix – to adapt the work
Under the following conditions:
attribution – You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the author or licensor (but not in any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work).
see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Joe_Oliver.JPG
Develop as soon as possible a society which does not rely on nuclear power
Eliminate nuclear power according to three principles
By law Japan’s government must prepare a national energy strategy plan. The currently valid plan provides for an increase of nuclear power from 30% to 50% and is vehemently opposed by public opinion following the Fukushima nuclear disaster and much loss of public trust in nuclear power in Japan – while at the same time many Japanese traditional industry leaders promote nuclear power as a necessity.
Decision on the new energy plan has been postponed, but is likely to be announced later this week. However, Japan’s public Radio and TV NHK reports, that Prime-Minister Noda yesterday at a Press Conference hinted at the content of the new energy policy plan. Some sources say that the new energy plan has already been approved by the cabinet.
NHK reports the following about Japan’s new energy policy
Develop as soon as possible (translated word by word from Japanese: “one day earlier than possible”) a society which does not rely on nuclear power
use all political means to enable zero nuclear power in the “2030s” (which might mean 2040 depending on the interpretation)
promote renewable energy in order to enable zero nuclear power
eliminate nuclear power according to three principles
no nuclear power station older then 40 years
restart only those nuclear power stations, for which safety has been approved by the Nuclear Safety Commission
no new power stations
operate nuclear power stations, for which the safety has been assured, as an important power source
We expect Japan’s new energy policy plan, which is required by law, to be announced later this week.
Regarding nuclear phase-out keep in mind that:
The Swedish Parliament in 1980 decided that no new nuclear power stations shall be built and that Sweden should complete shut-down of all nuclear power stations by 2010. However, Sweden reversed nuclear phase-out, and on June 17, 2010, Swedish Parliament decided to replace the existing reactors with new nuclear reactors starting from January 1, 2011.
Therefore, if in the future Japan reverses the nuclear phase-out, Japan would not be the first country to do so.
Japan’s current nuclear near-shut down:
After the Fukushima nuclear disaster Japan effectively stopped nuclear power generation. There are no black-outs – how could Japan manage?
Japanese law requires the government to have an energy strategy plan in place
Keep nuclear power off – or restart nuclear?
Japan’s current energy strategy plan provides for nuclear power to provide 30% of the electricity, rising to 50% in a few years by building additional nuclear power stations.
However, contrary to the current strategy plan the figure below shows, that Japan essentially switched off all nuclear power over the last year, with 2 exceptions.
A new energy strategy plan is delayed, but could be announced in the next few days. The Cabinet is in a dilemma to decide between the interests of the pro-nuclear business association Keidanren and the pro-nuclear electrical industry and considerable anti-nuclear movements in the general (voting) population.
One major problem is that Japan’s energy architecture and electricity industry is regulated by laws and regulations established in 1952. Essentially, Japan’s energy and electricity architecture has been frozen in 1952, and has not been changed until the Fukushima nuclear accident now forces change. The contribution of “new” renewable energy to Japan’s energy mix is so minute (except for water power), that it would be too small to be seen on the figures below. Our Japan-Energy report explains the major issues facing Japan’s energy architecture and its structure.
Japan’s energy peak is in summer (because energy consumption in Japan for air conditioning in summer is higher than for heating in winter), there were no black-outs, or brown-outs – how did Japan manage successfully despite the sudden unplanned exit from nuclear power? Read below…
How did Japan cope with the sudden exit from nuclear power?
After the Fukushima nuclear disaster Japan effectively stopped nuclear power generation. There are no black-outs – how could Japan manage?Japan’s survived by reducing summer peaks, and by increasing traditional hydrocarbon power production
How did Japan cope with the sudden shut-down of nuclear power?
Japan’s peak power consumption is in summer, all nuclear power (with 2 exceptions) was switched off since this spring, and there were no black-outs, no brown-outs, and no major problems. How did Japan achieve this?
As the lower figure shows, traditional caloric energy production was increased by installing new power plants, and by bringing back old caloric power plants which had already been switched off, and by reducing the summer peak compared to recent years through energy savings. It has been estimated that the additional costs for imported fuel are on the order of US$ 40 billion.
Expect Japan’s new national energy strategy plan to be announced in the next few days.
Japan’s energy architecture is maybe a victim of its pre-Fukushima success: because Japan’s electricity supply was working so well, nobody felt motivated enough to change the existing monopolies, grid, energy mix, or to develop renewable energies. More in our Japan-energy report.
4th Ludwig Boltzmann Symposium on Energy in Tokyo. Speakers: Tatsuo Masuda, Kiyoshi Kurokawa, Hideaki Watanabe, Robert Geller, Gerhard Fasol, Jonathan Dorfan
on Monday, 20th February 2012
14:00 Welcome by Thomas Loidl, Chargé d’affaires ad interim of the Austrian Embassy
14:10 Gerhard Fasol: today’s agenda”
14:20 – 14:40 Tatsuo Masuda
Professor at Nagoya University of Commerce and Business, served as Director of Oil Markets and Emergency Preparedness of IEA
Chairman of Japan’s Parliamentary Commission on the Fukushima Disaster, served as Special Cabinet Advisor on Science, Technology and Innovation
“Fukushima crisis fueling the third opening of Japan”
15:50 – 16:10 Hideaki Watanabe
Corporate Vice-President, Nissan Motor Company, in charge of Electric Vehicles and Zero Emission Business
“The new energy management supported by Electric Vehicles”
16:10 – 16:30 Robert Geller
Professor of Geophysics University of Tokyo, seismologist. First ever tenured non-Japanese faculty member at the University of Tokyo
“Understanding earthquakes: let’s put the physics back into geophysics!”
16:50 – 17:30 Gerhard Fasol
Physicist. CEO of Eurotechnology Japan KK, served as Assoc Professor at Tokyo University and Lecturer at Cambridge University and Manager of Hitachi Cambridge R&D lab
“Ludwig Boltzmann and the laws governing energy”
17:30 – 17:50 Jonathan M Dorfan
Particle physicist
President, Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University, OIST. Served as Director of the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center
“New Solutions for Energy – OIST’s R&am;D Program”
Followed by reception (private, invitation only)
Registration: latest 15 February 2011
Further information:
Peter Storer, Minister for Cultural Affairs, Embassy of Austria
Summary
Tatsuo Masuda: “New energy architecture for Japan”
Tatsuo Masuda described how Japan’s energy strategy and policy was until recently determined more or less behind closed doors by a group of about 100 insiders, of which Tatsuo Masuda has been one. This situation could continue as long as nothing went wrong.
Atomic energy was introduced to Japan via the USA, and instead of growing nuclear technology over an extended period of time within Japan, policians decided on a very short time schedule, which made it impossible to develop nuclear technology within Japan, and left purchase of ready-made nuclear power-plants and adoption of nuclear power technology from the USA as the only option.
Tatsuo Masuda predicts the “democratization” of electrical power generation in Japan. While at present almost all electrical power in Japan is produced by regional monopoly companies, in the future a development is likely, where many organizations, corporations, and private citizens will take part, or even may take over the main task or producing electrical energy in Japan.
Hideaki Watanabe: “The new energy management supported by Electric Vehicles”
Hideki Watanabe explained Nissan’s Leaf electrical vehicle program, and the associated energy technologies and businesses. During the coffee break, participants studied a Lead car, and an animated discussion took place about advantages and disadvantages of electrical cars, and in particular the Lead with respect to cold weather performance and other extreme conditions
Mr Watanabe explained that the Leaf electric car is the center of an energy management system, where the battery of Leaf electric car is an integral part of the energy management of the owner’s household.
Robert Geller: “Understanding earthquakes: let’s put the physics back into geophysics!”
Robert Geller calls for an return to the principles of physics in understanding earth quakes and in preparing for future disasters, instead of following positions based on political or funding priorities.
Robert Geller for a long time has been arguing for the view, that the timing, location and strength of earthquakes cannot be predicted due to fundamental principles of physics, and the nature of the earth. Robert demonstrated his arguments by bending a pencil in front of us (see photos below). While the stress distribution and other details can be calculated with precision, it is not possible to predict the time and the way the pencil breaks with accuracy. Robert argues that in a similar way, earth quakes can also not be predicted, because earth quakes are essentially in the mathematical sense chaotic phenomena.
Robert explained how a group of earth scientists years ago promised that they could predict earth quakes with the purpose of obtaining politically motivated funding for their research. They were successful in obtaining continuous research funding with the explicit purpose of developing methods to predict earthquakes. Once this funding started flowing for many years now, it is very difficult for scientists obtaining this funding to put the possibility of earthquake prediction in question.
Robert also discussed official earth quake risk maps, and explained that many of the strongest earth quakes occur in areas which are officially designated as low risk areas.
Robert called for a reassessment of earth quake policies and preparations for future disasters, using the most up-to-date results of earth-science, and to review outdated positions, and abandon those positions, which have been shown to be invalid using established methods of physics.
Gerhard Fasol: “Ludwig Boltzmann and the laws governing energy”
Gerhard Fasol reviewed Ludwig Boltzmann’s life and work, and particular his life-long work on the fundamental laws of physics governing energy.
Jonathan M Dorfan: “New Solutions for Energy – OIST’s R&D Program”
Jonathan Dorfan introduced OIST, The Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology, which has just recently been accredited as a Graduate University by the Japanese Ministry of Education, and introduced several research programs in the field of energy generation.
Jonathan explained the history of OIST, and OIST’s pioneering position as an English speaking international Graduate University in Japan. In particular, OIST has no Departments which would create barriers between research groups, instead the emphasis is on cross-disciplinary cooperation supported by the latest instrumentats and research tools. According to Jonathan, OIST succeeds in attracting most outstanding staff and students – surprisingly current market conditions seem to make it easier to attract outstanding research staff than students – the market for attracting outstanding students seems to be more competitive than for research staff. OIST offers scholarships for students, many or all of which are graduates from top ranking undergraduate schools.
5th update on the crisis in Tokyo, focusing on radiation and business impact
Fukushima nuclear accident impact on Tokyo, 12 April 2011
This is our 5th update on the crisis in Tokyo, focusing mainly on the radiation and impact on business in Japan.
The continuing quakes (as shown below) do present risk. To my knowledge, earth quakes are “chaotic” (mathematically speaking), and there is considerable scientific argument that earth quakes cannot be reliably predicted. More in a future newsletter.
The Japanese Government has classified the Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident as a level 7 accident in the INES Scale. The official Japanese Government documents announcing this INES Scale classification can be found here in Japanese and here in English. Note however, that we are dealing here with nature, and human reactions. Nature does not care how we classify such accidents.
Damaged Fukushima reactors are “static” but not yet stable
Rebuilding is progressing at amazing speed. The Tohoku Shinkansen high-speed train was re-opened Tokyo-Fukushima yesterday, with relay train connections on regular track to Sendai. The full Tokyo-Shin-Aomori line is scheduled to open beginning of May. ANA has started to fly to the repaired Sendai airport.
Radiation measurement results for Tokyo are shown below. Measured radiation levels in Tokyo are now comparable to Austria, and there are many places on earth which have far higher levels than are reported for Tokyo now.
Quakes and after-quakes
The figures show that more than 300 earthquakes of magnitude 5 or larger occurred since the major quake on March 11, 2011 at 14:46. The epicenters of quakes lie mostly where the Pacific Plate moves under the North American Plate on which Tohoku lies.
According to our knowledge earth quakes are mathematically speaking a “chaotic” phenomenon, and scientific arguments are, that it is difficult if not impossible to predict earth quakes with precision. (Figure: Wolfram Alpha LLC)
Earth quakes of magnitude 5 and greater in Japan (March-April 2011) (Figure: Wolfram Alpha LLC)Earth quakes of magnitude 5 and greater in Japan (March-April 2011) on logarithmic magnitude scale (Figure: Wolfram Alpha LLC)
Analyzing radiation levels in Tokyo/Shinjuku
Radiation in Tokyo/Shinjuku (until April 13, 2011) compared to Austria
Radiation levels in Tokyo (Shinjuku and Shibuya) and Tsukuba:
Radiation in Tsukuba (until April 13, 2011) compared to Austria
The blue curve above shows the radiation levels in Tokyo/Shinjuku as measured and published by the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute for Public Health here:
each hour for the last 24 hours
daily starting March 1
The red curves show maximum and minimum data as measured by TEPCO in Tokyo-Shibuya, and published here: TEPCO radiation data
The green curves show radiation data measured by Japan’s highly respected AIST Laboratory in Tsukuba (Ibaraki-ken, about 60 km north of Tokyo in direction of Fukushima) and published here: AIST radiation data.
Radiation levels in Tsukuba
The green curves show radiation data measured by AIST Laboratory in Tsukuba (Ibaraki-ken, about 60 km north of Tokyo in direction of Fukushima) and published here: AIST radiation data.
The radiation measurement results in Tsukuba are considerably higher than found in Tokyo, but have in the last few days decreased close to the top levels found naturally in Austria and in many other countries.
The differences in the data between Tokyo and Tsukuba could be because Tsukuba is 60km closer to Fukushima, could be cause by weather conditions, but they could also be caused by differences in the measurement equipment or a combination of these factors.
Drinking water (tap water) in Tokyo:
Contamination of Tokyo tap water with I-131 (until April 13, 2011)
Analysis of tap water in Tokyo can be found here for each day starting with March 18. This analysis shows that Tokyo tap water currently contains some radioactive Iodine (I-131), and some Cesium (CS-134 and Cs-137) radioactive isotopes.
Interesting in this context is that according to a WHO report on Japan of March 22 (pdf-file), Japanese health limits for radioactive Iodine are about 10 times lower than global standards, ie if Japanese health limits are exceeded, the levels are still at 10% of global limits (we don’t intend to underestimate this problem however).
We conclude that currently radioactive Iodine (I-131) concentrations are about 0.2% of Japan’s limits set by Japan’s Nuclear Safety Commission, and about 0.02% of international health limits, and are currently on a downward trend.
Contamination of tap water with Cesium Cs-134 and CS-137 isotopes (until April 13, 2011)
Radioactive contamination of drinking water (Cesium)
Cesium contamination with radioactive Cs-134 (1/2-life = 2.1 years) and Cs-137 (1/2-life = 30 years) isotopes is currently on the order of 0.1% of the limits set by Japan’s Nuclear Safety Commission and are on a downward trend.
The relatively long 1/2-life of Cesium-134 and Cesium-137 means that these radioactive isotopes will stay with us for many years. To understand this situation it is necessary to compare these levels with natural levels, and with other sources of radioactivity, and how Cesium interacts with our bodies.
Where to find radiation measurement results (updated March 28, 2011):
Business decisions unrelated to market realities are a prime reason for failure of foreign companies in Japan
In a quest to reduce market research costs, Japan market research is often outsourced to India, Philippines, Indonesia etc
With shock and surprise we recently found out that a very famous telecom and IT industry market research and strategy consulting firm with a globally famous brand apparently outsources market research of Japan’s mobile phone and telecom sector to India. The Indian employees apparently are diligently studying the Japanese language in evening classes, so that in a few years time, they will be able to read a little of the Japanese mobile market information which can be found on the internet, we assume.
We believe that this explains why so much information about Japan’s telecom and mobile phone markets circulating outside Japan is incomplete, or in many cases even wrong. As a consequence companies like Vodafone then take management decisions in Japan, which were totally unrelated to Japan’s market realities.
This fact also contributes we believe to the fact, that some of the most famous global companies in the telecommunications sector find it so difficult to succeed in Japan – not that Vodafone, Nokia (mobile phones and VERTU – except networks which are a great success), Cable & Wireless, Deutsche Telekom all withdrew from Japan – outsourcing market intelligence to low-cost countries such as China, India, Philippines etc. is certainly one of the contributing factors.
Indeed similar to Vodafone’s departure from Japan, famous global telecom consultancies have also closed shop in Japan, due to the very high costs and the continuous high investments necessary to achieve and maintain leadership in understanding Japan’s telecommunication markets.
We can assure our newsletter subscribers and our customers that our original Eurotechnology market reports and our strategy consulting is hand crafted in Tokyo/Japan. Our team members working on Japan market research and strategy consulting, all live in Japan, are mostly Japanese, and work daily with Japanese CEOs, telecom managers, and most importantly of all, daily interview and discuss with real-life Japanese mobile phones users: face-to-face here in Japan – not across one or more oceans.
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