Japan wireless industry adds 11 million subscriptions/year currently
Softbank targets ¥ 1 Trillion operational income
Japan wireless industry is growing, and Japan’s mobile operators add 11 million subscriptions/year currently: Japan adds about two Finlands worth of wireless subscriptions per year.
Softbank entered the telecom arena in 2001 with Yahoo BB, Nagoya Metallic and later Osaka Metallic and Tokyo Metallic Communications. However, when Softbank announced the acquisition of the ailing Vodafone-Japan operations, few telecom professionals outside Japan had ever heard about Softbank, and major telecom equipment makers approached our company to help start business with Softbank.
Today, Softbank has acquired Japan’s eAccess/eMobile, is sponsoring the rehabilitation of Willcom, founded Wireless City Planning, and is in the processes of gaining regulatory approval to acquire the US operator SPRINT – on the way to become one of the world’s largest telecom operators.
Japan wireless industry operators have combined operating profits of US$ 24 billion/year – Softbank targets operating profits of YEN 1 Trillion (= US$ 11 Billion) for financial year 2016
Softbank targeting YEN 1 trillion operating income by FY2016
Will Softbank overtake NTT-docomo?
NTT-docomo and Softbank could not be more different. While both are public companies, traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, about 21.7% of NTT-docomo’s shares are owned by Japan’s Ministry of Finance via their holding of NTT shares. On the other hand, Masayoshi Son owns about 21.4% of Softbank shares – almost the same ratio. One of Softbank’s targets is to achieve YEN 1 Trillion (= approx. US$ 11 Billion) in annual operating income. Softbank recently acquired US operator SPRINT, and to stimulate cooperation between Japanese employees of Softbank, Softbank is now offering YEN 1 million (US$ 11,000) bonus to those Softbank employees clearing a certain level of English language test.
Japan’s mobile subscriptions growth by 11 million/year
Smartphones drive a boom in Japan’s mobile communications sector
Smartphones drive a boom in Japan’s mobile communications sector: while growth has been fading over the last 10 years, iPhone and other smart phones accelerate growth. Currently Japan adds about 11 million mobile subscriptions every year: Japan adds about two Finland’s worth of mobile subscribers per year. Read detailed analysis in our Japan-Telecommunications-Industry Report
Japan replaced nuclear electricity generation by LNG, by imported gas
Japan trends for 2013: Nuclear reactor restarts are on their way
Japan trends for 2013 Japan’s energy sector: Japan has essentially replaced the 30% of its electricity energy supply which was from nuclear power plants, by electricity produced in aging thermal power plants from urgently arranged LNG purchases at very high prices. Prime Minister Abe said that he wants to restart all nuclear power stations, which receive safety clearance by the new Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA), and asks for these safety examinations to be completed within 3 years – however the NRA said, that 3 years is far to short to complete the safety assessment.
Given that any discussion about Japan’s energy mix, and “new” renewable energy (except for water power), liberalization and development of free energy markets were suppressed for many years in Japan, Japan now urgently needs to start innovating many components of the energy landscape including insulation and smart grids, and a new energy mix. PM Abe thinks that it will take about 10 years to settle on a new energy mix for Japan.
Japan trends for 2013: Japan is now waking up to innovation and changes of it’s energy and electricity sector
Japan’s electronics manufacturing sector is about as large as the economy of the Netherlands, but collectively showed no growth and lost money over the last 15 years, and therefore will either fade away, or very urgently needs new business models (see interview on BBC). PM Abe’s push for a lower YEN might soothe the symptoms a bit, but does not solve the fundamental problems. Hitachi’s “smart transformation” are steps in the right direction, but its really too early to tell – also “smart transformation” does not solve Japan’s traditionally low emphasis on software and other non-hard-ware-producing crafts.
Telecoms: Masayoshi Son, master of the midas touch and founder and master mind of SoftBank, acquired what was left of Vodafone-Japan and turned it around successfully within weeks, said reportedly: “I am a man – and want to be Number 1”. Now he aims to apply his midas touch to SPRINT. Expect more acquisitions by Son on the way to Number 1 in global telecoms.
Japan trends for 2013: Energy crisis continues as a result of the Fukushima nuclear disaster
Renewables: Japan’s feed in tariffs are among the world’s highest
Japan trends for 2013: Japan’s energy sector: Prime-Minister Abe announced that he will review the Fukushima nuclear accident before taking decisions on nuclear power, essentially postponing the nuclear issue. Japan’s feed-in tariffs for renewable (new) energy sources are among the highest in the world, about three times higher than Germany’s. While renewables (except for water power) were kept below 1% by an “untouchable” rule in the past, expect the rapid built-up of renewable sources in Japan to continue, initially mainly solar energy, and later wind, geo-thermal and other sources to follow. METI is also working on liberalization of Japan’s energy markets – I would not be surprised if the election results lead to a slow-down of liberalization. (read more in our Japan-Energy-Report, outline here on slideshare).
Japan trends for 2013: Japan’s electronics industry needs “smart transformation”
Electronics sector: as we show in a previous newsletter and in our Electronics-Industry report (read outline on slideshare), Japan’s electronic component makers overall are doing much better then Japan’s electronics conglomerates, but all are in dire need of new business models. We expect winners and losers to emerge. We are impressed by Hitachi’s steps towards “smart transformation”. If successful, Hitachi’s “smart transformation” might become a model for other Japanese electronics conglomerates to follow (watch BBC-Interview).
Masayoshi Son, founder of SoftBank: “I am a man- I want to be Number One”
Telecoms: Masayoshi Son, founder of SoftBank, reportedly said: “I am a man- I want to be Number One”, and he acquired US-Telecom operator SPRINT on his way to become global No. 1 in telecoms. While Masayoshi Son was busy negotiating with SPRINT in the US, KDDI reportedly tried to snatch Japan’s No. 4 operator eAccess/eMobile away, so Masayoshi Son also acquired eAccess/eMobile on the side.
More cash revenue for Google-Play Apps in Japan than in all of the mighty USA
Mobile-App statistics provider AppAnnie recently announced that there is more cash revenue for Google-Play Apps in Japan than in all of the mighty USA. So if you are an App-Developer, and if you like to see good cash revenues, you better focus on Japan first and USA second ;) and 7 out of the Top-10 publishers by revenue on Google-Play apps are Korean or Japanese…
Japan has more FTTH subscribers than all of EU + Switzerland + Norway + Iceland
FTTH (optical fibre to the home broadband): Japan has more FTTH subscribers than all of EU + Switzerland + Norway + Iceland. EU is catching up with Japan, but Japan alone today has more FTTH broadband than all the mighty EU countries added up together. (more in our JCOMM-Report on Japan’s telecom sector).
Liberalization leads to increasing competition and partnerships between Japan’s regional electricity and gas companies
Japan gas companies grow at an annual rate of 4.1% and show steady income
Japan gas companies grow at an annual rate of 4.1% and show steady income, and have developed into serious competitors for Japan’s electricity operators, while also cooperating in electricity generation.
We have added 50 pages coverage of Japan’s very successful gas sector to our Japan-Energy-Report.
Gas companies show healthy income. Electricity operators report increasing losses. Source https://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_energy/
Japan’s gas companies are profitable and grow while electricity operators’ revenues stagnate and descend into losses:
We compared Japan’s gas sector with Japan’s electricity operator sector:
Japan big-4 gas companies’ revenues grew 4.1% per year for the last 12 years, while reporting stable income.
Japan’s 10 regional electricity operators show stagnating revenues, while descending into deep losses.
Japan gas companies grow at an annual rate of 4.1% and show steady income. Increasing competition and cooperation between electricity and gas companies. Source: https://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_energy/
Japan’s gas companies develop into competitors for the regional electricity operators
Electricity operator’s descent towards losses started in 2007, well before the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Source https://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_energy/
Descent into crisis of Japan’s electricity operators started in 2007: Figure above clearly shows that the decent of Japan’s electricity operators started years before the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Therefore we conclude that restarting the nuclear reactors alone will not cure the crisis of Japan’s electricity operators, which for many years have enjoyed a monopoly position, and are now increasingly under attack by competitors including Japan’s very successful gas companies. We added approx. 50 pages analysis of Japan’s gas sector to our Japan-Energy-Report.
Kazuo Inamori (80 years old, born January 30, 1932), Japanese serial entrepreneur, founded Kyocera Corporation on April 1, 1959, founded DDI (now KDDI) in 1984, and turned around Japan Airlines (JAL) during the last two years.
Japan Airlines (JAL) went bankrupt on January 19, 2010, Kazuo Inamori turned around JAL, and JAL went public again on Tokyo Stock Exchange on September 19, 2012, returning substantial profit for the Enterprise Turnaround Initiative Corporation of Japan Fund.
Legendary serial entrepreneur Kazuo Inamori (稲盛 和夫)
Kazuo Inamori used his “Amoba Management” (アメーバ経営) techniques to rebuild Japan Airlines from bankruptcy
Kazuo Inamori is famous for “Amoeba Management (アメーバ経営)”, essentially Amoeba management means divisional accounting, and has been refined for the management of Kyocera and many other companies.
Today Kyocera is divided into about 3000 “amoebas” – applying the amoeba management methods to Japan Airlines
Applying “Amoeba management” to JAL, Kazuo Inamori installed a real time system, to determine the profit of each route and each single flight in real time, while in the past profits (or losses) at Japan Airlines, were calculated months after the fact.
Kazuo Inamori on leadership: “the leader must have a vision and burning determination to carry out the vision whatever the obstacles”, and must communicate aims and targets to everyone in the company.
On nuclear energy:
Japan’s energy / electricity sector is in upheaval, and given Japan’s respect for seniority, given Kazuo Inamori’s standing in Japan, understanding Kazuo Inamori’s opinion is very important for understanding how Japan’s energy landscape is likely to evolve in the future.
“In the past the problems of nuclear energy were hidden from the public, and in the future must be disclosed”.
“It is not possible to maintain the current sophisticated society without nuclear power”. He thinks that nuclear power is a necessary evil.
Financial instability of Japan’s electricity companies started long before the Fukushima nuclear accident
Japan’s electricity companies ran into financial instability long before the March 11, 2011 disaster
It is often assumed that the financial difficulties of Japan’s electricity companies are caused by the shut-down of almost all Japanese nuclear power stations within 13 months of the Fukushima disaster.
This newsletter shows that the financial impact of switching off Japan’s nuclear power stations does not seem to be the major contribution to the financial instability of Japan’s electricity companies.
However, this newsletter clearly proves that Japan’s electricity companies ran into financial instability long before the March 11, 2011 disaster and long before Japan’s nuclear power stations were switched off. The financial instability of Japan’s electricity companies seem to have started in 2004 – about 7 years before the Tohoku Earth-quake, as shown below. Therefore reform of Japan’s electricity industry sector is highly overdue.
Japan’s electricity crisis predates the Fukushima disaster by several years. Source https://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_energy/
Financial instability of Japan’s electricity companies started with the increase of natural gas payments in 2004
Japan’s electricity industry sector is dominated by 10 regional electricity operators, which to a large extent have the monopolies of electricity business in their regions. In exchange, their profits are calculated as a fixed percentage of costs. However, the figure above shows, that this system had become unstable around 2009 following a strong increase of natural gas costs since 2004. The figure above clearly shows that the net profits of Japan’s 10 regional electricity operators started a steady decline since 2007, and dropped firmly into the red in the financial year FY 2010, which ended on March 31, 2011, ie almost entirely before the Fukushima disaster, and about a year before nuclear power stations were switched off in Japan. This argument shows, that the difficulties of Japan’s electricity sector are even more profound than the cut-off of nuclear power stations, and shows that reform of Japan’s electricity sector is long overdue. For details read our report on Japan’s electrical industry sector.
Financial trouble of Japan’s electricity companies started before Fukushima. Source https://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_energy/
Financial instability of Japan’s 10 electricity operators started in FY2007 – several years earlier than the Fukushima nuclear disaster
This figure shows the combined annual net income of Japan’s 10 regional electricity operators for the period FY1999 – FY2011. The figure clearly shows, that combined net after-tax income was extremely stable until 2007, when net income started to drop dramatically, and has been falling ever since, culminating in combined net losses of over US$ 20 billion in FY2011. Losses are expected to increase even further for FY2012.
This figure clearly shows, that the financial instability of Japan’s electricity companies started several years earlier than the March 11, 2011 disaster and well before any nuclear power stations were switched off. More details in our report on Japan’s electricity and energy sector.
Over the last 15 years, their combined annual sales growth was zero, and their combined annual loss was YEN 50.6 billion/year (= US$ 0.6 billion/year).
Compelling evidence that new business models for Japan’s electronics sector present a huge opportunity – as explained in this BBC interview.
Sales growth of Japan’s “Big-8” electrical manufacturers vs top 7 electronics component makers
Contrasting Japan’s “Big-8” electronics groups (Hitachi, Panasonic, Sony, Mitsubishi-Electric, Sharp, Toshiba, Fujitsu, NEC) with Japan’s 7 electronic parts makers (Murata, Kyocera, TDK, Alps, Nidec, Nitto, ROHM)
Over the last 14 years since FY1997, the combined growth in revenues (=sales) of Japan’s “Big-8” electronics groups was zero. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of Japan’s top 7 electronic parts makers combined was +3.1%.
Net income/losses of Japan’s “Big-8” electronics giants vs top-7 electronics components makers
Net income (profit) of Japan’s “Big-8” electronics groups vs top-7 electronics parts makers
Over the last 14 years since FY1997, Japan’s “Big-8” electronics groups combined showed average losses of YEN 50.6 billion/year (=US$ 0.6 billion/year), while Japan’s top 7 electronic parts makers combined earned YEN 196 billion/year (= US$ 2.4 billion/year).
Net income/losses of Japan’s top electrical groups
Net after tax income of Japan’s “Big-8” electronics groups
This figure shows net after tax income for Japan’s “Big-8” electronics groups (Hitachi, Panasonic, Sony, Mitsubishi-Electric, Sharp, Toshiba, Fujitsu, NEC), for the years since FY1997. For 5 of these 14 years the industry sector reported combined losses, which in total exceeded the profits achieved in good years. As a result, averaged over all 14 years, the industry sector shows combined losses on the order of US$ 0.6 billion/year.
Creating new business models for this very large industry sector (of similar economic size as the Netherlands) is a huge opportunity.
et income/losses of Japan’s top-7 electronic component makers
Net income of Japan’s top 7 electronic parts makers
Japan’s top 7 electronic parts makers are in a much better financial situation than Japan’s electrical groups.
Over the last 14 years since FY1997, this industry sector only showed a net overall loss one single time – in the year following the Lehman shock, but showed combined net profits during all other years, resulting in average annual net profits on the order of US$ 2.4 billion/year.
BBC interview: “New business models for Japan’s electrical groups needed”
Japan switched 30% of total electricity generation from nuclear to LNG
Japan natural gas import replaces all nuclear energy
Japan switched about 30% of electricity capacity from nuclear to mainly natural gas powered thermal power stations within 13 months. We have analyzed Japan’s natural gas imports, which have skyrocketed to almost 2% of Japan’s GDP. Graphics and more details below in this newsletter. Find detailed analysis of Japan’s oil, coal and gas imports in report on Japan’s Electricity and Energy Landscape.
Japan’s natural gas imports skyrocket
Natural Gas (LPG and LNG) imports skyrocket to 2% of GDP
Since Financial Year 2010 (ended on March 31, 2011, a few days after the March 11 disaster) Japan’s natural gas imports have skyrocketed to almost 2% of GDP – while gas imports were around 0.5% or below of GDP until 2003.
There are two reasons for Japan’s skyrocketing payments for LNG imports
increased import volumes to replace nuclear energy by LNG fired thermal power stations, and
a “Japan premium” on the LNG prices, Japan has to pay above world market prices because of Japan’s special situation, and relatively weak bargaining position. Japan is of course under big financial pressure to reduce the payments for LNG imports.
Our report on Japan’s energy sector includes detailed analysis of Japan’s oil, gas and coal imports, and many other data on Japan’s energy and electricity sector, which we continuously update.
“Apple-Samsung Patent War and Impact on Japans Industries”
Speaker: Gerhard Fasol
Tuesday, October 2, 2012
12:00-13:30
Foreign Correspondents Club Japan (FCCJ), Yurakucho
Outline: In a global war to dominate the smartphone market, Samsung and Apple have been at each other’s throats, playing out the war in courts around the world and accusing each other of patent violations. A California court recently ruled in favour of Apple and ordered Samsung to pay $1 billion, a figure that could rise dramatically when the case is played out. Samsung has won minor battles in the U.K., Japan and Australia, but with new mobile phone models and tablets being introduced by both firms, the war is only going to get bigger and bloodier. In Japan local manufacturers are being marginalized and even fighting for survival.
Japan-based expert Gerhard Fasol will return to the FCCJ (for “FCCJ: Fasol & Matsumoto, The iPhone And Japan’s Mobile Phone Industry”, report of Fasol’s talk with Softbank Mobile CTO Tetsuzo Matsumoto at the first iPhone landing in Japan) to shed light on the Apple-Samsung dispute and how it impacts the Japan market, Japan operators and Japan manufacturers.
Gerhard Fasol runs Japan’s Eurotechnology K.K. consultancy (www.eurotechnology.com), has advised the president of Germany, JETRO and number of Japanese companies involved in high-tech industries and has authored Japanese patent applications. Fasol, who has written a number of books, graduated with a PhD in Physics from Cambridge University and was a tenured professor at Cambridge’s Cavendish Laboratory, a research scientist at the Max Planck Institute for Solid States Sciences in Germany, a manager of one of Hitachi’s R&D labs and was Director of Studies at Trinity College, Cambridge.
What is the financial impact of Japan’s switch from nuclear to fossil on Japan’s electricity industry?
Japan’s electricity operators switched from profits to huge losses
What is the financial impact of Japan’s switch from nuclear to fossil on Japan’s electricity industry? Answer: Japan’s electricity operators switched from about US$ 10 billion/year combined net profits to US$ 20 billion/year losses – far more dramatic than the impact of the Lehman shock. – Selected graphics below in this blog, and detailed analysis in our report on Japan’s electricity and energy industry.
annual net income of Japan’s electricity operators
Electricity operator losses may drive innovation
Losses are caused by high costs of fossil fuels and additional generation capacity brought online, and drive innovation, by forcing operators to look for new solutions to time-shift demand such as smart grids, and smart meters.
net margins of Japan’s electricity operators
Electricity sales revenues were affected much more by the Lehman shock than by switching from nuclear to fossil The figure below shows combined sales revenues of Japan’s 10 regional electricity operators. Sales were strongly affected by the industrial downturn after the Lehman shock in September 2009, and have recovered since. There is no strong effect of the Fukushima disaster and nuclear -> fossil switch on electricity sales:
Because Japan’s electricity operators have monopoly status in their regions, their financials are mainly affected by the economic status of their regions. All were affected dramatically on the sales side by the Lehman shock. This figure also shows that Japan’s electricity industry has been very static for many years. Japan’s Governments recent energy strategy provides for liberalization – executing this strategy will be the challenge.
describes a frog struggling to climb out of a well, slipping back one step on the ladder for each two steps upwards out of the well
Before the Fukushima disaster, Japan’s energy policy, strategy and execution were essentially decided behind closed doors by a small group of (about 100) Japanese people, and while European countries, Canada, USA experimented with electricity liberalization, Japan’s electricity industry structure went unchanged for a very very long time with a rigid top-down structure. However with the Fukushima disaster, Japan’s energy landscape has been brought onto the world stage, catching global attention for the first time.
Two steps forward (actually much more than two steps): Last Friday, September 14, 2012, Japan’s Cabinet released Japan’s new “Innovative Energy and Environmental Strategy”. We have analyzed the full Japanese text of this strategy paper, and you can find a summary on pages 5-23 in our “Japan Electrical Energy Landscape” report.
Most English language press reports focus only on the first few pages which describe a plan to phase out nuclear energy in Japan over the next 30-40 years. However this Government paper contains many other policy measures to reform Japan’s electricity industry and to completely change the principles of Japan’s energy landscape – steps which are long overdue, and where Japan has fallen behind most other advanced countries, because pre-Fukushima, Japan’s electricity industry was functioning “too well” – although at very elevated prices (for detailed analysis, read our report).
The strategy plan announced on September 14, 2012 has not yet created any irreversible facts – although two irreversible facts could soon be implemented: the Government announced a few days ago, that 3 nuclear power reactors should be decommissioned under the new 40-year-limit-rule, Tsuruga’s No 1 reactor (started March 1970), and Mihama’s No. 1 (started Nov 1970) and No. 2 reactors (started July 1972).
One step back: Sept. 19, the Cabinet released a “Kakugikettei” (Cabinet Decision) which is 4 and 1/2 lines long, which says:
We will carry out our energy and environmental policy based on the “Innovative Energy and Environmental Strategy” as decided by the Energy and Environment Council on Sept 14, however we will hold responsible discussions with concerned self-governing regional bodies of Japan and with concerned international organizations, and we will continuously and flexibly verify and adjust our policy. (Kakugikettei, Cabinet decision of Sept 19, 2012, our unofficial translation from bureaucratic official complex Japanese into simplified English, attempting to keep the same meaning).
Note, that this “step back” is not uniquely Japanese: Sweden decided in the 1980s to go zero-nuclear with a Parliament approved schedule, and Sweden’s parliament reversed the earlier zero-nuclear decision, and went back to continue nuclear power in 2010 and renewing or building new nuclear power stations.
Japan’s Cabinet released Japan’s new “Innovative Energy and Environmental Strategy”
Japan’s new energy strategy
Last Friday, September 14, 2012, Japan’s Cabinet released Japan’s new “Innovative Energy and Environmental Strategy”, which the Cabinet is required to produce by law, and which actually contains much more than the plan to work towards a future nuclear power free society.
We have analyzed the full official “Innovative Energy and Environmental Strategy” in the original Japanese version, and we have prepared a 19 page English language summary which you can find on pages 5-23 of our “Japan Electrical Energy Landscape” report
Most English language press reports have focused on the three principles to work towards a nuclear free society
strictly limit the operation of nuclear power plants to 40 years age
restart those nuclear power plants, where the safety has been assured by the Nuclear Safety Commission
no new construction or expansion of nuclear power stations
These principles – if maintained – may lead to the last nuclear power station in Japan to be switched off around 2052, ie about 40 years from now.
However, Japan’s new energy strategy framework paper contains much more
five policy packages concerning: the nuclear fuel cycle, human resources and technology development, cooperation with the global community, regional measures, the nuclear industry system and system for compensation of damages
measures for reducing electricity and energy consumption with targets until 2030 for two different economic growth scenarios
measures for promoting investment in renewable energy, with renewable energy generation targets until 2030
targets for electricity cogeneration until 2030
electricity power system reform, including unbundling of generation, transport and retail with the promotion of vibrant electricity markets
opening, strengthening and neutral electricity grid network, fair and accessible to all electricity producers
and most of all, a planned transition from passive electricity bill paying consumers to aware and active market participants who as much as possible generate their own electricity, and who instead of paying electricity bills, earn money from electricity they generate
In particular, the strategy plan states explicitly:
“…. it is indispensable, that electricity grid networks can be used by anyone, and to have competitive electricity markets”.
When trying to predict the far future, whether Japan will actually go completely non-nuclear or not, keep in mind that Sweden has decided to go non-nuclear in the 1980s, and has reversed this decision around 2010.
Currently only two of Japan’s remaining 50 nuclear reactors are in operation. It will be interesting to see if and when the safety of additional reactors are approved, and how rapidly the announcement dramatic deregulation and structural reform of Japan’s electricity system will be implemented, and how much of the announced policy steps might be reversed – or accelerated – by future Governments.
Joe Oliver, Minister for Energy and Natural Resources of Canada
Was asked today to be one of a group of about 5 Japanese experts to brief the Minister for Energy and Natural Resources of Canada, Mr Joe Oliver. We were asked to keep the conversation off-the-record, so I can’t write about the meeting.
Minister Oliver visited Japan leading a delegation of about 100 Canadian Energy sector leaders, CEOs, Government Officials, and the confidential briefing and discussion about Japan’s energy sector among a small group of about 5 Japanese experts, the Ambassador and Minister Oliver, was followed by a large lunch with about 100 Japanese and Canadian energy leaders and CEOs.
Mr Joe Oliver photograph image credits:
Author: Rocco Rossi
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Joe_Oliver.JPG
License: This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.
Image credits
Mr Joe Oliver photograph image credits:
Author: Rocco Rossi
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Joe_Oliver.JPG
License: This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.
You are free:
to share – to copy, distribute and transmit the work
to remix – to adapt the work
Under the following conditions:
attribution – You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the author or licensor (but not in any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work).
see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Joe_Oliver.JPG
Develop as soon as possible a society which does not rely on nuclear power
Eliminate nuclear power according to three principles
By law Japan’s government must prepare a national energy strategy plan. The currently valid plan provides for an increase of nuclear power from 30% to 50% and is vehemently opposed by public opinion following the Fukushima nuclear disaster and much loss of public trust in nuclear power in Japan – while at the same time many Japanese traditional industry leaders promote nuclear power as a necessity.
Decision on the new energy plan has been postponed, but is likely to be announced later this week. However, Japan’s public Radio and TV NHK reports, that Prime-Minister Noda yesterday at a Press Conference hinted at the content of the new energy policy plan. Some sources say that the new energy plan has already been approved by the cabinet.
NHK reports the following about Japan’s new energy policy
Develop as soon as possible (translated word by word from Japanese: “one day earlier than possible”) a society which does not rely on nuclear power
use all political means to enable zero nuclear power in the “2030s” (which might mean 2040 depending on the interpretation)
promote renewable energy in order to enable zero nuclear power
eliminate nuclear power according to three principles
no nuclear power station older then 40 years
restart only those nuclear power stations, for which safety has been approved by the Nuclear Safety Commission
no new power stations
operate nuclear power stations, for which the safety has been assured, as an important power source
We expect Japan’s new energy policy plan, which is required by law, to be announced later this week.
Regarding nuclear phase-out keep in mind that:
The Swedish Parliament in 1980 decided that no new nuclear power stations shall be built and that Sweden should complete shut-down of all nuclear power stations by 2010. However, Sweden reversed nuclear phase-out, and on June 17, 2010, Swedish Parliament decided to replace the existing reactors with new nuclear reactors starting from January 1, 2011.
Therefore, if in the future Japan reverses the nuclear phase-out, Japan would not be the first country to do so.
Japan’s current nuclear near-shut down:
After the Fukushima nuclear disaster Japan effectively stopped nuclear power generation. There are no black-outs – how could Japan manage?
Japanese law requires the government to have an energy strategy plan in place
Keep nuclear power off – or restart nuclear?
Japan’s current energy strategy plan provides for nuclear power to provide 30% of the electricity, rising to 50% in a few years by building additional nuclear power stations.
However, contrary to the current strategy plan the figure below shows, that Japan essentially switched off all nuclear power over the last year, with 2 exceptions.
A new energy strategy plan is delayed, but could be announced in the next few days. The Cabinet is in a dilemma to decide between the interests of the pro-nuclear business association Keidanren and the pro-nuclear electrical industry and considerable anti-nuclear movements in the general (voting) population.
One major problem is that Japan’s energy architecture and electricity industry is regulated by laws and regulations established in 1952. Essentially, Japan’s energy and electricity architecture has been frozen in 1952, and has not been changed until the Fukushima nuclear accident now forces change. The contribution of “new” renewable energy to Japan’s energy mix is so minute (except for water power), that it would be too small to be seen on the figures below. Our Japan-Energy report explains the major issues facing Japan’s energy architecture and its structure.
Japan’s energy peak is in summer (because energy consumption in Japan for air conditioning in summer is higher than for heating in winter), there were no black-outs, or brown-outs – how did Japan manage successfully despite the sudden unplanned exit from nuclear power? Read below…
How did Japan cope with the sudden exit from nuclear power?
After the Fukushima nuclear disaster Japan effectively stopped nuclear power generation. There are no black-outs – how could Japan manage?Japan’s survived by reducing summer peaks, and by increasing traditional hydrocarbon power production
How did Japan cope with the sudden shut-down of nuclear power?
Japan’s peak power consumption is in summer, all nuclear power (with 2 exceptions) was switched off since this spring, and there were no black-outs, no brown-outs, and no major problems. How did Japan achieve this?
As the lower figure shows, traditional caloric energy production was increased by installing new power plants, and by bringing back old caloric power plants which had already been switched off, and by reducing the summer peak compared to recent years through energy savings. It has been estimated that the additional costs for imported fuel are on the order of US$ 40 billion.
Expect Japan’s new national energy strategy plan to be announced in the next few days.
Japan’s energy architecture is maybe a victim of its pre-Fukushima success: because Japan’s electricity supply was working so well, nobody felt motivated enough to change the existing monopolies, grid, energy mix, or to develop renewable energies. More in our Japan-energy report.
On July 17, 2012 The Wall Street Journal reports, that as far as Transport for London is concerned, there is no viable mobile payment solution at this time:
Transport for London sees no way to use mobile payments at ticket barriers at this time, because the technology is not advanced enough
London’s state-of the art mobile payment transactions take longer than 500 milli-seconds which is too slow for Transport for London requirements
Mobile payments in Tokyo:
While no viable solution has yet been found in London, in Tokyo millions of people use “mobile SUICA” mobile payments every day at Tokyo’s rail, subway, tram lines and buses:
mobile payments at ticket barriers were first demonstrated in Tokyo in 2003 (photo below shows a demonstration at a trade show in Tokyo in 2004)
“mobile SUICA” mobile payments were commercially introduced to the public since January 28, 2006
payment transactions take 100 milli-seconds or less, which would fulfill Transport for London’s speed requirements
in addition mobile SUICA also has a full e-money function, and can be used at 1000s of stores all over Japan for payments, and for 1000s km of high-speed trains all over the main island of Japan, between Hakata and Aomori.
Mobile payments: Why does it take at least ten years to reinvent the mobile payment wheel in London?
Why is it that a problem the solution of which was demonstrated in Tokyo in 2003 and put to commercial use every day since January 28, 2006 without any problems, has not yet been solved in London even today?
The answer to this question is of course complex, and you will find elements of a discussion of this question on pages 185-188 of our mobile payment report (click here for free download which includes pages 185 – 188, pdf-file).
In our opinion the answer for this huge delay even today in the age of globalization and internet is a combination of:
human nature and
the huge communication gap and disconnect between European organizations and companies and Japanese organizations and companies and
the totally different way in which banking systems, payment systems, and also the commercial structure and way of thinking of transportation companies are organized regulated in EU vs Japan.
We have been working on mobile payment and e-money issues here in Tokyo for about 10 years or longer, and you may be interested in some of our reports:
SONY needs to leave 1990 structures behind and more more than commodities
SONY revival from record YEN 455 billion loss for FY2010
SONY (6758) announced a record YEN 455 Billion (US$ 5.7 Billion) loss for financial year 2011, which ended March 31, 2012, and held the annual shareholder meeting on Wednesday.
Gerhard Fasol on BBC TV about “Sony executives face weary shareholders at AGM”
SONY revival: My points in the BBC interview are
Stuck with 1990’s structures: SONY’s case is representative for many Japanese companies and also for many aspects of Japan as a whole today: SONY grew very rapidly until around 1995, when growth stopped. Since around 1995, there is no growth and averaged over the years zero profit. It’s very clear, that many of the management structures and ways of doing things during the pre-1995 rapid growth phase don’t work at all any more today.
A commodity maker? SONY needs to decide either to build an attractive ecosystem including attractive high-margin products – such as Apple does – or if SONY continues to shoot for the commodity business, with low margins, then it needs to be No. 1 in that space.
No diversity? in 2012? When we look at SONY’s website describing SONY’s top management, we can see that SONY’s top managers are almost all Japanese men – almost no diversity. SONY’s overwhelmingly Japanese male managers know Japan best – so it’s no surprise that SONY’s best performing division is the Financial Services division: a mainly domestic Japanese consumer credit card and life insurance company.
SONY’s sales stopped growing in 1998 ….. while net margin and net profits have been around zero
Read our report on Japan’s electronics industry sector:
Positive and negative aspects of Japan’s Galapagos issues
European Institute of Japanese Studies Academy Seminars presents
Speaker: Dr. Gerhard Fasol, President, Eurotechnology Japan K.K.
Wednesday, June 13, 2012, 18:30 – 21:00
Embassy of Sweden, Alfred Nobel Auditorium
Stockholm School of Economics, European Institute of Japanese Studies
About the talk:
In the last 20 years, several global revolutions were created in Japan, including the LED lighting revolution(1), mobile internet(2), electronic money(3). However, in each case Japan failed to capture much of the global value created by these revolutions. Dr. Fasol will talk about what is holding back Japan from capturing more global value from its unique creativity and how Western companies can do better in Japan, and avoid the most well-known traps
About the speaker:
For the last 15 years, Gerhard Fasol has worked with more than 100 investment fund managers in Japan, advising them on technology inflections, initiated and managed business development and assisted M&A projects. Dr. Fasol is currently working with several US and European companies in these areas, helping them onto successful paths in Japan. Dr. Fasol has been an Advisory Board member to the Chairman of JETRO and the only foreigner on Japan’s “Post Galapagos working group”.
Gerhard has an extensive business and academic career, as manager of one of Hitachi’s R&D labs, University Lecturer in Physics at Cambridge University. He also served as Director of Studies at Trinity College Cambridge, Research Scientist at the Max-Planck-Institute for Solid State Science in Stuttgart, and invited Professor at the Ecole Normale Superieure in Paris, was one of the first working on spin-electronics and magnetic memories in Japan, and has won a Sakigake research program from Japan’s Science and Technology Agency while faculty member in Electrical Engineering at the University of Tokyo. Gerhard graduated with a PhD in Solid State physics from Cambridge University and Trinity College, Cambridge, UK.
Gerhard Fasol lecture at Stanford University: “New opportunities vs old mistakes – foreign companies in Japan’s high-tech markets”
SHARP (6753) last month forecast a record YEN 290 Billion (US$ 3.5 Billion) loss for this financial year – more than 1/2 of SHARP’s market cap, and SHARP’s new Sakai factory is reported to work at 1/2 capacity.
Taiwan’s Hon Hai Group (which includes Foxconn, which is known to assemble Apple’s iPhones and iPads), and founder Terry Gou invest about YEN 133 Billion (about US$ 1.6 Billion in SHARP:
Hon Hai Group will invest YEN 66.9 Billion in newly issues SHARP-shares corresponding to a 9.9% holding, and will become SHARP’s largest share holder
Hon Hai’s Chairman Terry Gou and related investment companies will buy 46.5% of SHARP Display Products Corporation for YEN 66 Billion reducing SHARP’s holding from 93% to 46.5% (note that SONY preferred not to increase its holding in SHARP Display Products Corporation, which operates the Sakai factory) click below to watch video clip (initial plan for the interview was to discuss the ELPIDA bankruptcy, but at the last minute we switched the interview to the Hon Hai investments in SHARP, because of the potentially much bigger impact on Japan)
There is a wide range of implications
Clearly the business models which have sustained Japan’s huge electrical sector for several decades have reached end-of-live, and restructuring as well as much more opening to the outside, non-Japanese world are becoming more and more urgent. Much of our Post-Galapagos Working Group efforts last year were devoted to this urgent need.
SHARP’s financial problems may not be solved yet, and further investments by Hon Hai or others might well be on the horizon
APPLE – although not directly involved in the transaction – is the center of power. With the investment Hon Hai may hope, that a combination of Hon Hai and SHARP may become a stronger supplier to APPLE than each company alone. SHARP has been reported to use Hon Hai’s investment to increase production of LCD displays for smart phones, and tablets.
Comparing market capitalization, it’s clear who the stronger partner is:
SHARP = US$ 6.6 Billion market cap
Hon Hai = US$ 39 Billion market cap
For data and detailed analysis download our report on:
Tokyo PRO: NIKKEI reports that LSE fails in the same way in Japan as NASDAQ 10 years earlier. London Stock Exchange withdraws from Tokyo AIM and quits Japan
Tokyo-AIM (the stock market joint venture between Tokyo Stock Exchange and London Stock Exchange) seems to be heading along a similar road as NASDAQ-Japan about 10 years earlier, according to an article in NIKKEI this morning (morning edition of March 26, 2012).
Nikkei: “Tokyo Stock Exchange has learnt enough from the London Stock Exchange to set up a similar market on its own”
Nikkei reports this morning that “Tokyo Stock Exchange has learnt enough from the London Stock Exchange to set up a similar market on its own. TSE plans to improve the rules of its own new market, so that TSE can create a more welcoming market”.
Similar to NASDAQ ten years earlier
Reminds me of NASDAQ-Japan almost exactly 10 years ago:
At the end of 2002 I met with one of my friends, until a few days earlier CFO of NASDAQ-Japan, which terminated operations in Japan on October 15, 2002. I asked him as many questions as I could to build myself a good picture of why NASDAQ had not been successful in Japan, and why NASDAQ decided to terminate its operations in Japan. (After our conversation he offered my small company the used office furniture of NASDAQ-Japan at a good price, had I accepted this offer, my company’s people would all be sitting on x-NASDAQ-Japan chairs and desks…)
NASDAQ initially entered Japan in a joint-venture with Softbank, and built the NASDAQ-Japan stock exchange in cooperation with the Osaka Stock Exchange (OSE). When NASDAQ decided to terminate operations in Japan in October 2002, about 100 companies were listed on NASDAQ-Japan.
NASDAQ Japan becomes Hercules and succeeds
The stock market built up by NASDAQ in Japan became HERCULES (full name: Nippon New Market Hercules) when NASDAQ exited Japan, and in December 2008 Osaka Stock Exchange acquired JASDAQ, and October 12, 2010 Hercules, JASDAQ and NEO were merged to form New-JASDAQ. This year, 2012, there were 7 IPOs on the New-JASDAQ, and about 1000 companies are currently traded on New-JASDAQ.
Interesting to see that NASDAQ-Japan’s market and probably also the market to evolve now from TOKYO-AIM are success stories from the OSE and the TSE points of view, while NASDAQ and now apparently London-Stock-Exchange AIM withdrew from Japan.
Lots to learn here for foreign companies with complex high-tech businesses such as stock exchanges entering and building business in Japan.
4th Ludwig Boltzmann Symposium on Energy in Tokyo. Speakers: Tatsuo Masuda, Kiyoshi Kurokawa, Hideaki Watanabe, Robert Geller, Gerhard Fasol, Jonathan Dorfan
on Monday, 20th February 2012
14:00 Welcome by Thomas Loidl, Chargé d’affaires ad interim of the Austrian Embassy
14:10 Gerhard Fasol: today’s agenda”
14:20 – 14:40 Tatsuo Masuda
Professor at Nagoya University of Commerce and Business, served as Director of Oil Markets and Emergency Preparedness of IEA
Chairman of Japan’s Parliamentary Commission on the Fukushima Disaster, served as Special Cabinet Advisor on Science, Technology and Innovation
“Fukushima crisis fueling the third opening of Japan”
15:50 – 16:10 Hideaki Watanabe
Corporate Vice-President, Nissan Motor Company, in charge of Electric Vehicles and Zero Emission Business
“The new energy management supported by Electric Vehicles”
16:10 – 16:30 Robert Geller
Professor of Geophysics University of Tokyo, seismologist. First ever tenured non-Japanese faculty member at the University of Tokyo
“Understanding earthquakes: let’s put the physics back into geophysics!”
16:50 – 17:30 Gerhard Fasol
Physicist. CEO of Eurotechnology Japan KK, served as Assoc Professor at Tokyo University and Lecturer at Cambridge University and Manager of Hitachi Cambridge R&D lab
“Ludwig Boltzmann and the laws governing energy”
17:30 – 17:50 Jonathan M Dorfan
Particle physicist
President, Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University, OIST. Served as Director of the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center
“New Solutions for Energy – OIST’s R&am;D Program”
Followed by reception (private, invitation only)
Registration: latest 15 February 2011
Further information:
Peter Storer, Minister for Cultural Affairs, Embassy of Austria
Summary
Tatsuo Masuda: “New energy architecture for Japan”
Tatsuo Masuda described how Japan’s energy strategy and policy was until recently determined more or less behind closed doors by a group of about 100 insiders, of which Tatsuo Masuda has been one. This situation could continue as long as nothing went wrong.
Atomic energy was introduced to Japan via the USA, and instead of growing nuclear technology over an extended period of time within Japan, policians decided on a very short time schedule, which made it impossible to develop nuclear technology within Japan, and left purchase of ready-made nuclear power-plants and adoption of nuclear power technology from the USA as the only option.
Tatsuo Masuda predicts the “democratization” of electrical power generation in Japan. While at present almost all electrical power in Japan is produced by regional monopoly companies, in the future a development is likely, where many organizations, corporations, and private citizens will take part, or even may take over the main task or producing electrical energy in Japan.
Hideaki Watanabe: “The new energy management supported by Electric Vehicles”
Hideki Watanabe explained Nissan’s Leaf electrical vehicle program, and the associated energy technologies and businesses. During the coffee break, participants studied a Lead car, and an animated discussion took place about advantages and disadvantages of electrical cars, and in particular the Lead with respect to cold weather performance and other extreme conditions
Mr Watanabe explained that the Leaf electric car is the center of an energy management system, where the battery of Leaf electric car is an integral part of the energy management of the owner’s household.
Robert Geller: “Understanding earthquakes: let’s put the physics back into geophysics!”
Robert Geller calls for an return to the principles of physics in understanding earth quakes and in preparing for future disasters, instead of following positions based on political or funding priorities.
Robert Geller for a long time has been arguing for the view, that the timing, location and strength of earthquakes cannot be predicted due to fundamental principles of physics, and the nature of the earth. Robert demonstrated his arguments by bending a pencil in front of us (see photos below). While the stress distribution and other details can be calculated with precision, it is not possible to predict the time and the way the pencil breaks with accuracy. Robert argues that in a similar way, earth quakes can also not be predicted, because earth quakes are essentially in the mathematical sense chaotic phenomena.
Robert explained how a group of earth scientists years ago promised that they could predict earth quakes with the purpose of obtaining politically motivated funding for their research. They were successful in obtaining continuous research funding with the explicit purpose of developing methods to predict earthquakes. Once this funding started flowing for many years now, it is very difficult for scientists obtaining this funding to put the possibility of earthquake prediction in question.
Robert also discussed official earth quake risk maps, and explained that many of the strongest earth quakes occur in areas which are officially designated as low risk areas.
Robert called for a reassessment of earth quake policies and preparations for future disasters, using the most up-to-date results of earth-science, and to review outdated positions, and abandon those positions, which have been shown to be invalid using established methods of physics.
Gerhard Fasol: “Ludwig Boltzmann and the laws governing energy”
Gerhard Fasol reviewed Ludwig Boltzmann’s life and work, and particular his life-long work on the fundamental laws of physics governing energy.
Jonathan M Dorfan: “New Solutions for Energy – OIST’s R&D Program”
Jonathan Dorfan introduced OIST, The Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology, which has just recently been accredited as a Graduate University by the Japanese Ministry of Education, and introduced several research programs in the field of energy generation.
Jonathan explained the history of OIST, and OIST’s pioneering position as an English speaking international Graduate University in Japan. In particular, OIST has no Departments which would create barriers between research groups, instead the emphasis is on cross-disciplinary cooperation supported by the latest instrumentats and research tools. According to Jonathan, OIST succeeds in attracting most outstanding staff and students – surprisingly current market conditions seem to make it easier to attract outstanding research staff than students – the market for attracting outstanding students seems to be more competitive than for research staff. OIST offers scholarships for students, many or all of which are graduates from top ranking undergraduate schools.
Disaster communication: keynote at the 7th KCC Korea Communications Conference, Seoul
Communications save lives during disasters, and are essential for survival, for “situational awareness” (= to know what is going on), for decision making, and business continuity. Nobody likes to experience a disaster, but when disaster strikes there is no time, and decisions taken within a split-second can decide about life or death. Preparations need to be taken far in advance.
Victims and responders need “situational awareness” to take the right decisions
Japan’s continuing disasters have put Japan’s very advanced mobile and fixed line communications systems to an extreme test from which other countries can learn. Currently, Japanese operators are learning from the experience and are hardening communications and broadcasting systems. Understanding communications during disasters is essential for business continuity.
While traditional communications broke down due to overload, social networks showed resilience
It has been reported that mobile communications peak demand during the March 11 disaster increased to about 50-60 times normal volume, leading to a break-down or switch-off of mobile voice communications, and to an extended near-break down of mobile email.
Twitter and social networks showed strength and resilience, as did internet based communications. The internet was initially designed in the 1950s to provide communications during nuclear war.
After the Kobe/Hanshin earth quake rebuilding took about 18 months
Rebuilding Tohoku: After the Kobe/Hanshin earth quake rebuilding took about 18 months – maybe this is a good measure to estimate how long rebuilding will take in Tohoku. In Tohoku communities will certainly be rebuilt in locations which are much better protected against giant Tsunamis. The 15-member Disaster Rebuilding Council had the first constituting session yesterday, Thursday April 14, and includes the President of Keio University Atsushi Seike, architect Tadao Ando, playwright Makiko Uchidate, SONY-VP Ryoji Chubachi, and is chaired by Makoto Iokibe, President of the National Defence Academy. Japan’s resilience in face of almost unbelievable natural disasters is also an expression of Japan’s “Galapagos effect”.
Japan’s civilisation and society has developed over a very long time in sync with natural disasters of almost unbelievable proportions. People outside the immediate disaster zone continued to work with usual very high intensity, and inside the disaster zone immediately started with reconstruction work. A large part of the high-speed Tohoku Shinkansen train line from Tokyo to Aomori reopened, and is expected to run the full 710km length again from beginning of May. This 710km long high-speed train line rund right through the disaster area and was damaged in 1200 locations according to JR-East.
Sendai Airport which was struck by the earth quake and the Tsunami has been repaired with the help of US-Forces initially to bring in relief goods, and has now also been reopened for commercial air-traffic. All Japanese commercial airports are open for service again.
5th update on the crisis in Tokyo, focusing on radiation and business impact
Fukushima nuclear accident impact on Tokyo, 12 April 2011
This is our 5th update on the crisis in Tokyo, focusing mainly on the radiation and impact on business in Japan.
The continuing quakes (as shown below) do present risk. To my knowledge, earth quakes are “chaotic” (mathematically speaking), and there is considerable scientific argument that earth quakes cannot be reliably predicted. More in a future newsletter.
The Japanese Government has classified the Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident as a level 7 accident in the INES Scale. The official Japanese Government documents announcing this INES Scale classification can be found here in Japanese and here in English. Note however, that we are dealing here with nature, and human reactions. Nature does not care how we classify such accidents.
Damaged Fukushima reactors are “static” but not yet stable
Rebuilding is progressing at amazing speed. The Tohoku Shinkansen high-speed train was re-opened Tokyo-Fukushima yesterday, with relay train connections on regular track to Sendai. The full Tokyo-Shin-Aomori line is scheduled to open beginning of May. ANA has started to fly to the repaired Sendai airport.
Radiation measurement results for Tokyo are shown below. Measured radiation levels in Tokyo are now comparable to Austria, and there are many places on earth which have far higher levels than are reported for Tokyo now.
Quakes and after-quakes
The figures show that more than 300 earthquakes of magnitude 5 or larger occurred since the major quake on March 11, 2011 at 14:46. The epicenters of quakes lie mostly where the Pacific Plate moves under the North American Plate on which Tohoku lies.
According to our knowledge earth quakes are mathematically speaking a “chaotic” phenomenon, and scientific arguments are, that it is difficult if not impossible to predict earth quakes with precision. (Figure: Wolfram Alpha LLC)
Earth quakes of magnitude 5 and greater in Japan (March-April 2011) (Figure: Wolfram Alpha LLC)Earth quakes of magnitude 5 and greater in Japan (March-April 2011) on logarithmic magnitude scale (Figure: Wolfram Alpha LLC)
Analyzing radiation levels in Tokyo/Shinjuku
Radiation in Tokyo/Shinjuku (until April 13, 2011) compared to Austria
Radiation levels in Tokyo (Shinjuku and Shibuya) and Tsukuba:
Radiation in Tsukuba (until April 13, 2011) compared to Austria
The blue curve above shows the radiation levels in Tokyo/Shinjuku as measured and published by the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute for Public Health here:
each hour for the last 24 hours
daily starting March 1
The red curves show maximum and minimum data as measured by TEPCO in Tokyo-Shibuya, and published here: TEPCO radiation data
The green curves show radiation data measured by Japan’s highly respected AIST Laboratory in Tsukuba (Ibaraki-ken, about 60 km north of Tokyo in direction of Fukushima) and published here: AIST radiation data.
Radiation levels in Tsukuba
The green curves show radiation data measured by AIST Laboratory in Tsukuba (Ibaraki-ken, about 60 km north of Tokyo in direction of Fukushima) and published here: AIST radiation data.
The radiation measurement results in Tsukuba are considerably higher than found in Tokyo, but have in the last few days decreased close to the top levels found naturally in Austria and in many other countries.
The differences in the data between Tokyo and Tsukuba could be because Tsukuba is 60km closer to Fukushima, could be cause by weather conditions, but they could also be caused by differences in the measurement equipment or a combination of these factors.
Drinking water (tap water) in Tokyo:
Contamination of Tokyo tap water with I-131 (until April 13, 2011)
Analysis of tap water in Tokyo can be found here for each day starting with March 18. This analysis shows that Tokyo tap water currently contains some radioactive Iodine (I-131), and some Cesium (CS-134 and Cs-137) radioactive isotopes.
Interesting in this context is that according to a WHO report on Japan of March 22 (pdf-file), Japanese health limits for radioactive Iodine are about 10 times lower than global standards, ie if Japanese health limits are exceeded, the levels are still at 10% of global limits (we don’t intend to underestimate this problem however).
We conclude that currently radioactive Iodine (I-131) concentrations are about 0.2% of Japan’s limits set by Japan’s Nuclear Safety Commission, and about 0.02% of international health limits, and are currently on a downward trend.
Contamination of tap water with Cesium Cs-134 and CS-137 isotopes (until April 13, 2011)
Radioactive contamination of drinking water (Cesium)
Cesium contamination with radioactive Cs-134 (1/2-life = 2.1 years) and Cs-137 (1/2-life = 30 years) isotopes is currently on the order of 0.1% of the limits set by Japan’s Nuclear Safety Commission and are on a downward trend.
The relatively long 1/2-life of Cesium-134 and Cesium-137 means that these radioactive isotopes will stay with us for many years. To understand this situation it is necessary to compare these levels with natural levels, and with other sources of radioactivity, and how Cesium interacts with our bodies.
Where to find radiation measurement results (updated March 28, 2011):
Fukushima nuclear disaster impact on Tokyo update No. 4 of 28 March 2011
Fukushima nuclear disaster impact on Tokyo: This is our 4th update on the crisis in Tokyo, focusing mainly on the radiation and impact on business in Japan. Our future expert newsletters will discuss earth quakes.
Despite all the suffering, we believe there could be a positive impact on Japan’s economy, if the current crisis leads to regulatory reform, structural reform and decentralization of Japan, see our TV interview on BBC and on AlJazeera.
Friday 25th March I discussed the situation directly with top officials of Japan’s Technology, Science and Education Ministry MEXT, which is responsible for official radiation measurements across all regions of Japan. I talked also with the Department Head responsible for radiation measurements about some open points, e.g. why the official Government measurements and the TEPCO measurements differ.
Generally speaking the situation at the Fukushima nuclear power station is still dangerous and may continue to be so for some time, however, reports seem to indicate that progress is continuously made moving into the right direction. We will discuss the radiation situation in Tokyo, which is slowly improving according to our understanding of the data available to us. We will discuss more details in future newsletters.
Analyzing radiation levels in Tokyo/Shinjuku
Radiation levels in Tokyo in March 2011 compared to background in Austria
Radiation levels in Tokyo (Shinjuku and Shibuya) and Tsukuba
The blue curve above shows the radiation levels in Tokyo/Shinjuku as measured and published by the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute for Public Health here: each hour for the last 24 hours daily starting March 1 The red curves show maximum and minimum data as measured by TEPCO in Tokyo-Shibuya, and published here: TEPCO radiation data
The green curves show radiation data measured by Japan’s highly respected AIST Laboratory in Tsukuba (Ibaraki-ken, about 60 km north of Tokyo in direction of Fukushima) and published here: AIST radiation data. AIST is a highly respected research laboratory, and we believe that these measurements are conducted with much professional diligence and suitable equipment by experienced scientists.
It is astonishing that radiation data in Tokyo, Shinjuku measured by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government under coordination of Japan’s MEXT-Ministry differ substantially from the results by TEPCO in Shibuya just a few kilometers away. Currently (morning of March 28), Tokyo Government’s data are 110 nGray/h, while TEPCO’s data a few km away are 59 nGray/h, about one half. We believe that the two groups measuring these data should meet and search for an understanding of this difference.
We see a strong radiation peak which occurred around March 15 in all data. Currently the radiation levels in Tokyo are in the range of natural background radiation found in Austria and many other countries on our planet. Radiation levels are decreasing.
If there is no further emergency and no further leakage of radiation from the Fukushima plant, we would expect radiation to drop closer to normal background levels, however this depends on weather conditions.
It is important to keep in mind however, that the radiation levels in the Figure above are due to radioactive isotopes, mainly Iodine (I-131, I-133), and Cesium (CS-134, CS-137), but also Tellurium (Te-132), Xenon (Xe-133) (for a detailed analysis see the AIST data). Detailed impact on people depends on how these isotopes enter the body and whether they remain inside the body, and which organs they affect.
Another factor is 1/2-life. Radioactive isotopes decay with time via emission of radiation, in the case of I-131 8 days, I-132 2.3 hours, and I-133 21 hours. Therefore the Iodine isotopes disappear naturally after a few days, while Cs-134 (1/2-life 2.1 years), Cs-137 (1/2-life 30 years) stay around for a long time.
Radiation data in Tsukuba and Tokyo in March 2011
Radiation levels in Tsukuba: The green curves show radiation data measured by AIST Laboratory in Tsukuba (Ibaraki-ken, about 60 km north of Tokyo in direction of Fukushima) and published here: AIST radiation data.
The radiation measurement results in Tsukuba are considerably higher than found in Tokyo, but have in the last few days decreased close to the top levels found naturally in Austria and in many other countries.
The differences in the data between Tokyo and Tsukuba could be because Tsukuba is 60km closer to Fukushima, could be cause by weather conditions, but they could also be caused by differences in the measurement equipment or a combination of these factors.
Drinking water (tap water) in Tokyo
Radioactive contamination of drinking water in Tokyo (Iodine)
Contamination of tap water for I-131 (until March 27)
Analysis of tap water in Tokyo can be found here for each day starting with March 18. This analysis shows that Tokyo tap water currently contains some radioactive Iodine (I-131), and some Cesium (CS-134 and Cs-137) radioactive isotopes.
Interesting in this context is that according to a WHO report on Japan of March 22 (pdf-file), Japanese health limits for radioactive Iodine are about 10 times lower than global standards, ie if Japanese health limits are exceeded, the levels are still at 10% of global limits (we don’t intend to underestimate this problem however).
We conclude that currently radioactive Iodine (I-131) concentrations are about 7% of Japan’s limits set by Japan’s Nuclear Safety Commission, and about 0.7% of international health limits, and are currently on a downward trend.
According to US Ambassador Roos, US Government experts are currently analyzing the Tokyo tap water situation and will report on their findings shortly.
Radioactive contamination of drinking water (Cesium)
Contamination of tap water for Cs-134 and Cs-137 (until March 27)
Cesium contamination with radioactive Cs-134 (1/2-life = 2.1 years) and Cs-137 (1/2-life = 30 years) isotopes is currently on the order of 0.2% and 0.4% of the limits set by Japan’s Nuclear Safety Commission and are on a downward trend.
The relatively long 1/2-life of Cesium-134 and Cesium-137 means that these radioactive isotopes will stay with us for many years. To understand this situation it is necessary to compare these levels with natural levels, and with other sources of radioactivity, and how Cesium interacts with our bodies.
This is our third update on the crisis situation in Tokyo, focusing mainly on the radiation risk, and impact on business in Japan. Strong after-quakes are still continuing everyday, more than 300 after-quakes stronger than magnitude 5 were counted since the initial magnitude 9 quake on March 11, 2011 at 14:46.
Loss of human lives (more than 20,000), evacuation (more than 300,000 evacuees), electricity shortages and factory closures have impact on the global supply chains and will impact the GDP of Japan, however we believe there could be a positive impact on Japan’s competitiveness if this crisis leads to structural changes and deregulation in Japan – for details see our interview on BBC.
In the initial phase of the earthquakes mobile phone communications were very unreliable, with voice connections unavailable, and mobile mail connections almost unavailable even in Tokyo, only one mail out of 10-20 attempts could be sent. 3426 mobile phone base stations are reported to be out of action as of March 22 (for an overview of mobile communications including details of base stations see our JCOMM report). SNS on the other hand (Twitter, Facebook, Mixi, GREE etc) were resilient, and we expect their popularity to increase even further because of the quake. Several Japanese Government agencies and Electrical Utility TEPCO started using Twitter the first time a few days after the quake.
Analyzing radiation levels in Tokyo/Shinjuku
Radiation levels in Tokyo in March 2011
Comparing radiation levels in Tokyo/Shinjuku with Austria:
The blue curve above shows the radiation levels in Tokyo/Shinjuku as measured and published by the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute for Public Health here: each hour for the last 24 hours daily starting March 1 Before the earthquake on March 11, 2011 at 14.46, radiation data were around 34 nanoGray/hour. Around March 15 and since March 21 increases to the range of 130 – 150 nanoGray/hour where measured. It is generally assumed that these increases are due to radioactive isotopes carried from the Fukushima Nuclear Power station due to wind and weather conditions.
Our Figure shows that radiation levels measured in Tokyo seem to have stabilized with a downward trend. So there maybe some hope for radiation levels to return to normally low levels if the downward trend continues.
To put these radiation levels into context, we compare these radiation levels in the Figure above with the radiation levels naturally found in Austria. The Austrian umweltnet.at website shows current radiation levels in Austria, and mentions that natural radiation levels in Austria are between 70 and 200 nano-Sievert/hour, which corresponds to 70 – 200 nanoGray/hour. We indicate this range above in pink color.
This Figure shows that according to our interpretation, radiation levels in Tokyo/Shinjuku were about 30% lower than the lowest radiation levels found in Austria, and are currently increased to levels which would be in mid-range of natural radiation in Austria (natural radiation is mainly caused by Radon gas diffusing out from the ground, and from the natural cosmic radiation from space). Humans have been exposed to this natural background radiation ever since life exists on earth, and Darwinian evolution of human live has taken place in coexistence with this natural background radiation, and in the natural presence of a corresponding amount of radioactive isotopes.
It is important to keep in mind however, that the radiation levels in the Figure above are due to radioactive isotopes, mainly Iodine (I-131, I-133), and Cesium (CS-134, CS-137), but also Tellurium (Te-132), Xenon (Xe-133) (for a detailed analysis see the AIST data). Detailed impact on people depends on how these isotopes enter the body and whether they remain inside the body, and which organs they affect.
Another factor is 1/2-life. Radioactive isotopes decay with time via emission of radiation, in the case of I-131 8 days, I-132 2.3 hours, and I-133 21 hours. Therefore the Iodine isotopes disappear naturally after a few days, while Cs-134 (1/2-life 2.1 years), Cs-137 (1/2-life 30 years) stay around for a long time.
Drinking water
Analysis of tap water in Tokyo can be found here for each day starting with March 18. This analysis shows that Tokyo tap water currently contains some radioactive Iodine (I-131), and some Cesium (Cs-137).
Interesting in this context is that according to a WHO report on Japan of March 22 (pdf-file), Japanese health limits for radioactive Iodine are about 10 times lower than global standards, ie if Japanese health limits are exceeded, the levels are still at 10% of global limits (we don’t intend to underestimate this problem however). According to US Ambassador Roos, US Government experts are currently analyzing the Tokyo tap water situation and will report on their findings shortly.
Our short analysis of the radiation data for Tsukuba and Shinjuku:
Gray, Gy, microGray, nanoGray measure the absorption of ionizing radiation. One Gray is the the absorption of one Joule (the unit of energy) by one kilogram of matter, see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gray_(unit)
Sv, Sievert, uSievert refers to the impact of radiation on biological tissue, not to the physics of the radiation itself, see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sievert For X-rays and Gamma-rays (which are high-energy X-rays) the units are the same, ie one microGray has the impact of one microSievert, the conversion factor is 1.
You can see that in Tsukuba the radiation impact on humans over the last days has been on the order of 40 – 300 nano-Sieverts/hour, which is oscillating around the natural range of radiation in Austria.
The radiation measurements in Tokyo-Shinjuku showed around 50 nano-Sieverts/hour most of the time, except for spikes above 100 nano-Sieverts/hour.
Click here to see that radiation levels in Austria are in the range of 70 – 200 nano-Gray/hour (corresponding to 70 – 200 nano-Siever/hour for Gamma-Rays).
This means that the radiation levels in Tsukuba are currently similar or a little higher than you would typically experience in higher regions of Austria, while the radiation levels in Tokyo-Shinjuku currently at mid-range for Austria, and have been 30% lower than the lowest radiation levels in Austria for much of the time since the quake. We have made similar comparisons for Italy. The natural background radiation load in Austria and Italy (and other countries) are due to (1) radon gas which emerges from the ground and produced by the decay of natural Uranium, and (2) cosmic radiation from space, which are all exposed to anywhere on earth. Cosmic radiation exposure is higher at high altitudes, since cosmic radiation is screened by the atmosphere.
We conclude that currently radiation levels in the Tokyo region are of similar magnitude as in typical European countries.
Note however, that the radiation levels currently in Tokyo are due to radioactive isotopes which may be inhaled or ingested and remain inside the human body, so there is a difference to natural background radiation. We may analyze this point in future newsletters.
Regarding radiation, please note that radiation is not equal radiation, there are alpha (= Helium nuclei), beta (= electrons e.g. inside vacumm TV tubes and old fashioned PC terminals) and gamma rays (= high energy X-rays), neutrons, and other types or radiation (e.g. neutrinos).
When people talk about “radiation” from the Nuclear power station, they don’t usually mean the direct alpha, beta, gamma radiation or neutrons, which cannot travel far, but they mean radioactive isotopes which are the product of radioactive decay. The harmful nature of radio-active isotopes depends very much on the type of isotope, and specially also their half-life, and whether they are attached externally to clothing or shoes, or whether they are inhaled or eaten and remain in the body. Some decay very fast, and others live very long. Some, like plutonium are also very poisonous in addition to radioactivity.
The Tsukuba AIST website analyzes the isotopes in detail and lists the occurance as a function of time, as well as the 1/2-life. Shorter 1/2-life (ie I-132: 2.3 hours) mean higher radioactivity, but also mean that such short-lived isotopes also disappear faster.
Further information on radiation levels in Japan, CTBTO data:
It turns out that according to an article in NATURE, the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) is collecting and transmitting very detailed data on radioactivity and composition of radio-nucleides in and around Japan, but it keeping these data secret.
CTBTO radiation data have now been analyzed by the Austrian Central Agency for Weather and Geodynamics (“Hohe Warte”), and conclude that the release of radioactive isotopes by the Fukushima powerstations corresponds to approximately 20% of the amounts released in the Chernobyl accident. For a short report including animations of the spread of the radioactive plume see here http://www.zamg.ac.at/aktuell/index.php?seite=1&artikel=ZAMG_2011-03-23GMT10:57 .
Radiation in Tokyo due to the Fukushima nuclear disaster
Our second update of the radiation and disaster situation in Tokyo, as of 22 March 2011
Suffering caused by the Friday March 11, 14:46 earthquake in Japan continues, but we see hope and reconstruction. Tomorrow the new high-speed train line north of the disaster zone is planned to run again between Shin-Aomori and Morioka. Radiation in Tokyo is evolving due to the Fukushima disaster and explosions and melt-down of nuclear reactors.
Japan’s society has developed over 100s of years coping with similar disasters, and it is already obvious that Japan will overcome this disaster strengthened. In recent years, Japan overcame the Kobe-Earthquake and the Niigata-Earthquake, and Japan will also overcome this earthquake soon. We observe many discussions to learn from this disaster and to strengthen Japan.
In this newsletter we focus on analysis of radiation risks (see below) in Tokyo, and on US and EU response.
Radiation in Tokyo: situation in Tokyo
Radiation in Tokyo is evolving due to the Fukushima disaster and explosions and melt-down of nuclear reactors
We see Japanese companies and Japanese workers – including our company Eurotechnology-Japan here in Tokyo – working almost normally throughout the period of after-quakes. A notable exception is the account settlement IT system of Mizuho-Bank which apparently has broken down.
Electricity savings by the population were beyond expectations, so that planned electricity cuts have been largely avoided – most electricity cuts were announced but not implemented – the electricity keeps flowing in most areas, especially in the central areas.
While many long-term foreign residents remained in Tokyo, a large fraction of temporary foreigners left either to Osaka, or left Japan altogether. The departure of some foreigners (and some Japanese) has not been un-noticed.
One of my friends, Japanese surgeon (medical doctor) at Tokyo University’s hospital, who had stayed at the bedside of patients throughout the quake, broke down in tears telling me about a colleague leaving Tokyo during the after-quakes.
US actions – Operation Tomodachi
“Operation Tomodachi”: The US Pacific Command has built up a massive help and relief effort “Operation Tomodachi”, which involves US Air Force, US Marine Corps, US Army (458 personell + 1000 contractors), US Navy (12,750 personell participating in Operation Tomodachi). A summary of US Pacific Command help to Japan including “Operation Tomodachi” can be found here. In particular, US experts and loaned equipment are helping with the Fukushima nuclear power stations, US is working to repair Sendai Airport and other damaged infrastructure so that supplies can be forwarded, and US military is delivering supplies including food, blankets, fuel and water into the disaster area.
According to announcements by the US Ambassador Roos, the US Embassy in Tokyo has increased staffing by about 30%, and 96 US Government employees and experts have arrived from outside Japan to help.
Many EU country Embassies have reduced staff or shut down in Tokyo. (This is in stark contrast to the actions of the US Embassy in Japan, which actually increased staff numbers).
Situation at the Fukushima Reactor
Through heroic work of the fire fighters at the reactors the situation seems to stabilize and improve in the right direction. The International Atomic Energy Agency website summarizes the the situation officially here dated March 20, 2011. It appears that since March 20 the situation has improved further.
We here at Eurotechnology-Japan are continously working here in Tokyo for you – and our customers. We actually closed new business contracts a few days after the March 11 earthquake.
Understanding radiation in Tokyo as a consequence of the Fukushima nuclear disaster
Sources of radiation information and analysis as of 18 March 2011
On Friday March 11, at 14:46 one of the world’s largest earthquakes ever happened close to Japan’s coast near Fukushima, triggering a series of disasters which are still ongoing, and which brought much suffering. Human suffering continues, after-quakes continue – for a full week we had 20 or more after-quakes every day, some also quite strong, including several during the production of this newsletter. Understanding radiation in Tokyo has become a key factor for decision making by government, companies and population
We will interview one of the world’s most important earthquake experts in one of our next newsletter.
In this edition we focus on the radiation issues from the nuclear power station disaster
For an assessment of the situation at the Fukushima nuclear power stations, you may be interested to read a report of March 15, 2011 by the UK Government’s Chief Scientific Officer Professor John Beddington.
Our understanding of Japan’s radiation situation
Japan’s Government AIST laboratory (which is METI’s largest laboratory and it’s competence and R&D results are very respected for a long time) is publishing radiation measurements taken in their Tsukuba laboratory directly, and include analysis of the radiation (Tsukuba is in Ibaraki-ken north of Tokyo in direction of the Fukushima nuclear power station – so we expect radiation in Tsukuba to be higher than in Tokyo) – you can find them here: http://www.aist.go.jp/taisaku/ja/measurement/index.html
Japan’s Science and Education Ministry publishes radiation data for the last 24 hours for all of Japan here: http://atmc.jp/
Radiation data for Tokyo/Shinjuku are published here
Our short analysis of the radiation data for Tsukuba and Shinjuku
Sv, Sievert, uSievert refer to the impact on the body by radiation, not to the physics of the radiation itself, which is measured with different units. find details here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sievert
You can see that in Tsukuba the radiation impact on humans is currently on the order of 0.08 – 0.10 micro-Sieverts/hour.
The radiation measurements in Tokyo-Shinjuku show around 0.05 micro-Sieverts/hour
This means that the radiation levels in Tsukuba are currently the same as you would typically experience in Austria, while the radiation levels in Tokyo-Shinjuku currently are about 30% lower than the lowest radiation levels in Austria, and about 4 times lower than the highest radiation levels in Austria. We have made similar comparisons for Italy.
We conclude that currently radiation levels in the Tokyo region are of similar magnitude or lower than in typical European countries.
Regarding radiation, please note also that radiation is not equal radiation, there are
alpha (= Helium nuclei),
beta (= electrons e.g. inside vacumm TV tubes and old fashioned PC terminals) and
gamma rays (= high energy X-rays),
neutrons,
and other types or radiation (e.g. neutrinos).
When people talk about “radiation” from the Nuclear power station, they don’t usually mean the direct alpha, beta, gamma radiation or neutrons, which cannot travel far, but they mean radioactive ions. The harmful nature of radio-active ions depends very much on what kind of ions these are, and specially also their half-life, and whether they are attached externally to clothing or shoes, or whether they are inhaled or eaten and remain in the body. Some decay very fast, and others live very long. Some, like plutonium are also very poisonous in addition to radioactivity.
Further information on radiation levels in Japan
It turns out that according to an article in NATURE, the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) is collecting and transmitting very details data on radioactivity and composition of radio-nucleides in and around Japan, but it keeping these data secret.
We do not know the reasons why it is necessary to keep CTBTO’s measured data about radiation in Japan secret during this disaster. If anybody reads this newsletter familar with CTBTO’s conditions – maybe this person could urge the publication of these radiation data.
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![Fukushima nuclear disaster impact on Tokyo [4]](https://www.eurotechnology.com/b/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/cc_20110328rad1_825_510.jpg)
