[My answer to a recent LinkedIn discussion group question: “Mobile Internet Device will replace Cell Phone!”]
This is too narrow a view.
I would say: today’s state of the art cell phones already include the role of internet device + many other functions, mobile internet devices cannot do.
1. For several years practically all Japanese cell phones have been “mobile internet devices” + camera + barcode reader + digital & analog TV + GPS navigator + movie camera + wallet + cash + train ticket + appartement key + comic book + e-book reader + alarm clock + etc. read the details in our reports:
2. have you read Karl Popper? – he is a philosopher. He says it makes no sense to discuss terminology. He would object to this discussion topic – because he would say that this is just mincing definitions and has no substance.
Japan’s mobile phone sector is admired the world over, and Japanese mobile phones are years ahead the rest of the world regarding functionality. However, Japan’s mobile phone industry may be heading for a disaster, similar to the European 3G spectrum license fee disaster which almost bankrupted Europe’s mobile phone operators – unless changes are made quickly. Statistics released today show that mobile phone deliveries in October dropped down to 1/4 of steady sales maintained over the last 8 years as the figure below shows.
Switch from subsidy business model to installment contract model causes Japan’s mobile phone handset market to collapse (temporarily)
What is the reason for the disastrous drop in mobile phone deliveries?
Until recently Japan’s mobile phone operators subsidized mobile phone handsets. Consumers would typically pay YEN 10,000 (about US$ 100) for handsets with built-in digital TV, GPS, movie camera with auto-focus, electronic money and tickets, QR-code reader, and much more, which cost the operators up to YEN 100,000 (US$ 1000) per handset.
Encouraged by Japan’s Government, mobile operators recently switched from the subsidy model to an installment plan, while discounting the monthly usage fees.
While previously consumers put YEN 10,000 (US$ 100) or in some cases YEN 1 (1 cent) on the counter to receive one of the world’s most advanced handsets, since a few weeks ago consumers are faced with a 2 year installment purchase contract where they pay the full YEN 60,000 (US$ 600) or YEN 80,000 (US$ 800) for a handset in installments of around YEN 3000 (US$ 30) each month for two years. Not surprisingly handset sales dropped into the cellar as shown above (the figure above actually shows the deliveries from manufacturers to mobile operators, not the actual retail sales).
What are the likely consequences?
continuing consolidation of Japan’s mobile phone handset makers
surviving handset makers will push into international markets
operators will push harder for cheaper handsets
operators might return to a modified subsidy model
SoftBank from 4th to 1st position within less than 12 months… SoftBank‘s turn-round of x-Vodafone-Japan, went faster than many expected. Within less than 12 months SoftBank went from last place to first place in customer sign-ups, overtaking even KDDI‘s super-popular AU.
Willcom recently suffers from SoftBank‘s revival, as well as from eMobile‘s flat rate data services.
Month-to-month net subscription growth/decline for Japan’s mobile phone operators during the period when mobile number portability (MNP) was introduced
The presentation is not available any longer on the FCCJ website however you can download our report about Japan’s telecom sector. An abbreviated version is shown below via SlideShare. If you need the full FCCJ presentation PowerPoints e.g. for prior art or other business, please contact us.
From the Announcement:
In his presentation, Dr. Fasol will explain the essentials of Japan’s mobile phone market, why and how it is so different to Europe’s. He will also talk about some of the reasons why it is so difficult for European companies to succeed and uncover opportunities and the keys to success for European companies in this important market.
Gerhard Fasol “Help – my mobile phone does not work!” – Why Japan’s mobile phone sector is so different from Europe’s, at the Finnish Chamber of Commerce in JapanGerhard Fasol “Help – my mobile phone does not work!” – Why Japan’s mobile phone sector is so different from Europe’s, at the Finnish Chamber of Commerce in JapanGerhard Fasol “Help – my mobile phone does not work!” – Why Japan’s mobile phone sector is so different from Europe’s, at the Finnish Chamber of Commerce in Japan
The European Institute of Japanese Studies (EIJS Academy in Tokyo) of the Stockholm School of Economics will hold a seminar in Tokyo-Marunochi on Thursday, February 16, 2006:
Topic: “Why are Mobile Phones (Keitai) so hot in Japan? – and How European companies in all sectors can profit from Keitai”
Speaker: Gerhard Fasol
Gerhard Fasol “Why are keitai so hot in Japan?” Embassy of Sweden
Agenda:
Japan created the most passionate and most advanced mobile communications (keitai) market in the world. Recently, almost all innovations in mobile communications have been developed or brought to market first in Japan. Fasol’s talk will explain why this is, and how European companies in all fields, from retail to publishing can profit by building keitais into their business models.
Date: Thursday, February 16, 2006
Time:
6.15 – 7.00 p.m. Drink and Snack (served before the lecture)
7.00 – 9.00 p.m. Lecture and Discussion
Place:
Marubiru Conference Square, Room 2 (Tel: 03-3217-7111) 8th floor of Marubiru, 2-4-1 Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo One-minute walk from JR Tokyo Station, Marunouchi South Exit
Fee: JPY2,000 per person, payable at the door Free for students, please bring your student ID Free for those who are from sponsoring companies
Advance registration required: Please sign up (via email) or fax to (FAX 03-3212-1530) for the attention of Ms. Futagawa (EIJS Tokyo Office.)