Japanese electronics parts makers grow, while Japan’s iconic electronics makers stagnate

Japanese electronics parts makers grow, while Japan’s iconic electronics makers stagnate

Japan’s iconic electronics groups combined are of similar size as the economy of The Netherlands

Parts makers’ sales may overtake iconic electronics groups in the near future – they have already in terms of profits

In the 25th edition of our analysis of Japan’s huge electronics industry sector, we compare the top 8 iconic electronics groups with top 7 electronics parts makers over the period FY1998 to FY2014, which ended March 31, 2015 for most Japanese companies. Except for Toshiba, all Japanese major electronics companies have now officially reported their FY2014 results.

Japan’s iconic 8 electronics groups (Hitachi, Toshiba, Panasonic, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi Electric, NEC, SONY and SHARP) combined are as large as the economy of The Netherlands – but while the economy of The Netherlands doubled in size between 1998 and 2015, the sales/revenues of Japan’s iconic 8 electronics groups combined showed almost zero growth (annual compound growth rate = 0.4%) and almost zero income (profits).

Japan’s top 7 electronics parts makers on the other hand – similar to the Netherlands – more than doubled their combined revenues (sales) over the 17 years from FY1998 to FY2014, and earned healthy and increasing profits.

While several of Japan’s iconic electronics groups are fighting for survival, Japan’s parts makers have very ambitious growth plans – some of them may well overtake the traditional electronics conglomerates in sales – they have already in terms of profits. And they aggressively acquire around the world.

Detailed data and analysis in our Report on Japan’s electronics sector (25th edition).
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Japan’s electronics parts makers combined more than doubled sales over the last 17 years

Japan's top 7 electronics parts makers grow at CAGR of 4.6%
Japan’s top 7 electronics parts makers grow at CAGR of 4.6%

Japan’s iconic top 8 electronics groups showed almost no growth over the last 17 years

Japan's top 8 iconic electronics groups stagnate - some fight for survival
Japan’s top 8 iconic electronics groups stagnate – some fight for survival

Japan’s electronics parts makers grow – the traditional electronics groups stagnate

Japan's electronics parts makers grow - Japan's iconic electronics groups stagnate
Japan’s electronics parts makers grow – Japan’s iconic electronics groups stagnate

Read our report on Japan’s electronics industry sector:
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Japan electronics industries – mono zukuri. Preview this report:

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Japan’s electronics giants – FY2012 results announced. 17 years of no growth and no profits.

market caps of Japan's electronics industry vs US and Korea

Japan’s electronics giants: as large as the economy of Holland, but 17 years of stagnation. No growth & no profits.

Daniel Loeb: SONY’s uninvited guest gives Japan’s business culture a jolt

Japan’s electronics giants combined are as large as the economy of Holland, but did not grow for about 17 years, and on average lost money all these years: no growth – no profits.

SONY abruptly created global headlines (e.g see New York Times), because US activist investor Daniel Loeb publicly encourages SONY’s CEO to speed up change. Mr Loeb’s Third Point LLC fund is SONY’s biggest shareholder at this time – surprising many, maybe even surprising SONY’s CEO, Mr Hirai. Mr Loeb’s encouragement was well timed: Mr Hirai’s will present SONY’s new strategy on May 22.

As we analyzed in our newsletter a few days ago and in more detail in our Electronic Industry Report, which was picked up by EE-Times and by the BBC, SONY recently earns its income, and offsets losses from the electronics and mobile phone businesses, mainly from asset sales and from subsidiary SONY-Finance – which sells life-insurance and credit cards. Therefore many believe that iconic SONY is undervalued, and needs much deeper and more fundamental change.

Japan’s iconic Big-8 electronics giants posses amazing technologies and engineers. However, their current situation is very much less than amazing, indicating huge opportunities. A few days ago the Big-8 all announced their results for FY2012, which ended on March 31, 2013 – lets look at the results together here.

annual net income of Japan's Big-8 electronic manufacturers
long slow path to recovery for Japan’s “Big-8” electronics giants

Japan’s electronics giants: Averaged over the last 15 years, Japan’s Big-8 created net losses of YEN 104 billion/year

Subtracting losses from profits, and averaged over the last 15 years, Japan’s Big-8 created net losses of YEN 104 billion/year (US$ 1 Billion losses/year)

For the last two financial years the Big-8 created net losses as follows:

Financial Year ended combined net losses
FY2012 March 31, 2013 YEN 1143 Billion (US$ 11 Billion)
FY2011 March 31, 2012 YEN 909 Billion (US$ 8.9 Billion)

Hitachi’s smart transformation

Hitachi’s smart transformation (find an overview in our report) indicates that change can bring rapid improvement.

combined revenues of Japan's
Japan’s “Big-8” electronics makers combined are about the size of Holland’s economy – with one difference: Holland’s economy grows, but Japan’s electrical giants shrink and lose money at the same time

No growth

No growth: combined revenues of the Big-8 fell by YEN 1510 Billion (US$ 15 Billion) in the 15 years between FY1997 and FY2012 (assuming constant value YEN)

Many expect that “smart transformation” and globalization, and opening-up to the global society – combined maybe with a rejuvenation of “the Japanese model”, can release the potential for growth, which has been held back for 15 years.

In our electronic industry report we compare the Big-8 electronics companies with the Big-7 electronic parts manufacturers and show that their situation is much better, however the parts manufacturers face decreasing margins, also indicating the need for changing the business models and/or operations.

Market caps of Japan's Big-8 electronic manufacturers compared to Apple, Google, Samsung, Microsoft
Japan’s “Big-8” may be seen as undervalued

Japan’s Big-8 electronics makers combined have far lower market capitalization than Apple, Microsoft, Google or Samsung

We produced the figure above for the presentation at the Foreign Correspondents Club in Tokyo about the “Apple-Samsung Patent War and Impact on Japans Industries”. We used the figure above to visualize the might of the Apple and Google/Samsung camps vs Japan’s Big-8 today. 15 years ago, the power of Apple vs Samsung vs Japan’s Big-8 was exactly opposite.

There is no reason why Japan’s electronics sector cannot regain global strength and value – IF absolutely necessary changes are made. This situation represents outstanding opportunities, which no doubt are attracting Mr Loeb and his Third Point fund, and others.

Understand Japan’s electronics sector: top 8 giants, and top electronic component makers

Study our report “Japan electronics industries: mono zukuri” (approx. 230 pages, pdf file)
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Intellectual Japan – BBC: “Japan has to become a brain country” – from mono zukuri to brain country

Intellectual Japan: from mono zukuri to brain country

Intellectual Japan: Japan’s electronics companies need new business models – interview for the BBC

The BBC recently examined why Japan’s electronics sector has to create new business models, and quotes “Japan has to become a brain country”.

Japan’s top 8 electronics companies combined are as large as the Netherlands economically, but have shown zero growth and zero income over the last 14 years – thus represent “sleeping giants” – or dinosaurs, depending on the point of view, and depending on whether these companies succeed to reinvent themselves.

We have updated our report on “Japan’s electronic manufacturers: mono zukuri” to analyze Japan’s electronics manufacturing sector, and to explain who the winners and who the losers are. Read a short summary in this newsletter below.

Japan's electronics companies combined are as large as Holland economically
Japan’s electronics companies combined are as large as Holland economically

Japan’s top electronics companies combined are as large as the Netherlands economically, but have not shown any revenue growth over the last 14 years

Japan’s electronics sector still today is largely guided by national industrial policy, and by the management principles created long ago by charismatic founders such as Matsushita and Ibuka.

Intellectual Japan: smart transformation at Hitachi led by the CEO and by the Chief Transformation Officer CTrO

Hitachi’s “Chief Transformation Officer” (“CTrO”) at a recent presentation, explained that until 2 years ago Hitachi benchmarked its financial data purely domestically – until 2 years ago, Hitachi only compared performance with competitors such as Panasonic and Toshiba.

Only 2 years ago, Hitachi started to benchmark performance with global competitors such as GE and Siemens.

Read a summary of Hitachi’s “Smart Transformation project” in our electronics industry report.

Japan's top 8 electronics companies combined lose YEN 50 billion/year since 1998
Japan’s top 8 electronics companies combined lose YEN 50 billion/year since 1998

Japan’s top 8 electronics companies lost an average of YEN 50 billion/year over the last 14 years

Intellectual Japan: electronic component makers

Japan’s electronics component makers, such as Kyocera or Murata, which is on the official supplier list of Apple, report positive income – although margins are declining and the component industry sector is much smaller than the top 8 electronics manufacturers.

Drastic transformation is necessary to revive Japan’s electronics industry sector. Drastic change will happen one way or another and represents important opportunities. More details in our electronics industry report

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Japanese electronics groups need new business models (BBC-interview: Yen ‘not the cause of woes of Japan’s electronics firms’)

Japanese electronics groups need new business models. BBC interview with Gerhard Fasol on Japanese electronics financial performance

Japanese electronics groups combined as of similar size as the economy of the Netherlands

Over the last 15 years combined annual sales growth was zero, and combined annual loss was US$ 0.6 billion/year

Japan’s “Big-8” electrical groups (Hitachi, Panasonic, Sony, Mitsubishi-Electric, Sharp, Toshiba, Fujitsu, NEC) combined are of similar economic size as the Netherlands.

Over the last 15 years, their combined annual sales growth was zero, and their combined annual loss was YEN 50.6 billion/year (= US$ 0.6 billion/year).

Compelling evidence that new business models for Japan’s electronics sector present a huge opportunity – as explained in this BBC interview.

Japanese electronics: Sales growth of Japan's
Sales growth of Japan’s “Big-8” electrical manufacturers vs top 7 electronics component makers

Contrasting Japan’s “Big-8” electronics groups (Hitachi, Panasonic, Sony, Mitsubishi-Electric, Sharp, Toshiba, Fujitsu, NEC) with Japan’s 7 electronic parts makers (Murata, Kyocera, TDK, Alps, Nidec, Nitto, ROHM)

Over the last 14 years since FY1997, the combined growth in revenues (=sales) of Japan’s “Big-8” electronics groups was zero.
The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of Japan’s top 7 electronic parts makers combined was +3.1%.

Japanese electronics: Net income/losses of Japan's
Net income/losses of Japan’s “Big-8” electronics giants vs top-7 electronics components makers

Net income (profit) of Japan’s “Big-8” electronics groups vs top-7 electronics parts makers

Over the last 14 years since FY1997, Japan’s “Big-8” electronics groups combined showed average losses of YEN 50.6 billion/year (=US$ 0.6 billion/year), while Japan’s top 7 electronic parts makers combined earned YEN 196 billion/year (= US$ 2.4 billion/year).

Japanese electronics: Net income/losses of Japan's top electrical groups
Net income/losses of Japan’s top electrical groups

Net after tax income of Japan’s “Big-8” electronics groups

This figure shows net after tax income for Japan’s “Big-8” electronics groups (Hitachi, Panasonic, Sony, Mitsubishi-Electric, Sharp, Toshiba, Fujitsu, NEC), for the years since FY1997. For 5 of these 14 years the industry sector reported combined losses, which in total exceeded the profits achieved in good years.
As a result, averaged over all 14 years, the industry sector shows combined losses on the order of US$ 0.6 billion/year.

Creating new business models for this very large industry sector (of similar economic size as the Netherlands) is a huge opportunity.

Japanese electronics: Net income/losses of Japan's top-7 electronic component makers
Net income/losses of Japan’s top-7 electronic component makers

Net income of Japan’s top 7 electronic parts makers

Japan’s top 7 electronic parts makers are in a much better financial situation than Japan’s electrical groups.

Over the last 14 years since FY1997, this industry sector only showed a net overall loss one single time – in the year following the Lehman shock, but showed combined net profits during all other years, resulting in average annual net profits on the order of US$ 2.4 billion/year.

BBC interview:
BBC interview: “New business models for Japan’s electrical groups needed”

BBC interview:
Watch an extract of the BBC interview about Japan’s electrical industry sector here: Yen ‘not the cause of woes of Japan’s electronics firms’.

More detailed data and analysis in our report on Japan’s electronics industry sector.

Japan electronics industries – mono zukuri. Preview this report:

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Post-Galapagos Japan? – globalizing Japan’s fantastic technologies…

eurotechnology.com

Japan Galapagos effect: “Why do Japanese companies make so beautiful mobile phones with fantastic functions, and have almost no global market share?”

I asked this question back in 2003 to NTT-DoCoMo’s CEO Dr. Tachikawa (see my article “Leadership questions of the week” in Wallstreet Journal of June 12, 2006, page 31), and offered several proposals to Dr. Tachikawa, of which he accepted one.

A related question is: “why can Samsung, LG and Apple beat Japan’s initially far more advanced mobile phone makers, and why have Japan’s phone makers taken no effective action to build global business in order to avoid extinction?”

Now six years after my initial presentation to DoCoMo’s CEO, I have been invited as the only non-Japanese to work on Japan’s “Post-Galapagos Committee”. For most of this year our small group of industry CEOs, academics, government officials and other leaders have been working on understanding the reasons for Japan’s “Galapagos effect” and how to overcome it.

Read about this work here in the New York Times, about my (Japanese language) presentation to the committee on the IT-Media website here (in Japanese), and download my presentation PowerPoints here (pdf-format, Japanese language).

The “Galapagos effect” has not been created by a single factor. Instead a collection of choices by the management teams of Japan’s electrical conglomerates have prevented leverage of their domestic success stories into global success stories. These choices can be overcome. In our “Post-Galapagos committee” we have worked all-year on how to overcome these choices.

Unfortunately the “Galapagos effect” is only one symptom of the crisis of Japan’s electrical giants: most have shown little or no growth in sales over the last 10 years, while at the same time margins tend to be small or negative. Over the same period, General Electric has increased sales by a factor of about three, while at the same time earning healthy margins.

Overcoming this crisis will create many opportunities. If at least some of the conclusions of our “Post Galapagos Committee” can be realized, then our committee’s hard and totally voluntary work during most of this year and many late nights will not be wasted.

For an analysis of Japan’s electrical industry sector see our Japan’s electronics industry report.

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Japan’s games sector overtakes electrical sector in income

Japan’s games sector is booming – and net annual income of Japan’s top 9 game companies combined has now overtaken the combined net income of all Japan’s top 19 electronics giants (including Hitachi, Panasonic, SONY, Fujitsu, Toshiba, SHARP… at the top, and ROHM, Omron… further down the ranking list).

Why does it make sense to compare electronics giants with game companies? In many areas, especially home electronics and personal portable devices these two sectors compete for exactly the same consumer spending budgets and mind share.

Pressure on Japan’s electrical giants for much more fundamental restructuring is increasing. More details below and find our calculations and analysis explained in our reports: Report on Japan’s electrical industry sector and our Report on Japan’s game industries.

Figure compares the added total net income of Japan’s top 18 electrical companies (Hitachi, Panasonic, SONY…) with the combined total net income of Japan’s top 9 games companies (Nintendo, Bandai Namco…, not including SONY Computer Entertainment, because net income is not available).

The games sector – lead by Nintendo – shows stable net income all through the current crisis years. While pressure on the electrical giants for more fundamental restructuring is increasing.

Combined annual net income of Japan's game companies compared to Japan's top 18 electronics companies
Combined annual net income of Japan’s game companies compared to Japan’s top 18 electronics companies

Combined total net annual income of Japan’s games sector. (SONY Computer Entertainment is not included, since net income is not available)

Combined annual income of Japan's top game companies
Combined annual income of Japan’s top game companies

Detailed analysis in our report on Japan’s games sector.

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Japan’s electronics companies & the crisis

Japan's electronics industries

Japan’s top 20 electronics companies combined are about as large as The Netherlands economically, and have big impact on the world economy. Our analysis shows how dramatically Japan’s electronics companies have been hit by the current crisis (except for Nintendo). We suggest that full recovery to 2008 (FY2007) levels may take until 2016 – about seven years in terms of income, and about 3-4 years in terms of revenues.

The crisis has thrown Japan’s electrical companies back to 2002 in terms of combined annual net incomes. It has taken Japanese electricals 7 years to climb from the 2002 crisis to the 2008 (FY2007) boom. Since Japan’s electrical companies have made relatively soft adjustments, but not a full fundamental industry restructuring yet, we think that it is likely that developments will proceed along a similar path as in the past: following such an analysis we think that it will take about 7 years from 2009 (ie. until 2016) for Japan’s electrical companies to work their way back up to 2008 net income levels. (Find detailed financial data and analysis in our report on Japan’s electronics industries)

net income of Japan's electronics companies
net income of Japan’s electronics companies

Back to FY2003:

Combined annual sales for the financial year ending March 31, 2010, are at a similar level as in FY 2003, ie Japan’s electrical industry has been taken back 6 years in terms of revenue growth. Again, since a dramatic and fundamental industry restructuring has not yet taken place, we believe that we can expect it will take about 4 years for Japan’s electronics industry to grow again to 2008 (FY2007) size in terms of annual revenues.

net revenues of Japan's electronics companies
net revenues of Japan’s electronics companies

The crisis spreads the field…

During the “good” years of FY1997 – FY2007 the differences between top and bottom performing electrical companies became steadily smaller: the field narrowed.

This figure shows that during the current crisis the spread between best and worst performing companies became more than twice as wide. The crisis clearly differentiates winners (Nintendo) from losers in terms of operating margins.

operating margins of Japan's electronics companies
operating margins of Japan’s electronics companies

Read more details in our report about Japan’s electrical industries

Japan electronics industries – mono zukuri. Preview this report:

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e-Access and Lucent announce HSDPA tests in Japan

e-Access Chairman & CEO, Sachio Semmoto and Lucent Chairman & CEO Patricia Russo on March 30, 2005 in Tokyo, explained their joint tests of HSDPA services in Tokyo. e-Access is preparing to enter Japan’s mobile communications industry with the brand “e-Mobile”, and is currently conducting tests with Lucent and Fujitsu as equipment providers.

Former US Ambassador to Japan, Thomas Foley, presenting his wishes for the Lucent-eAccess cooperation:

US Ambassador Foley speaks a the conference announcing the cooperation between Fujitsu and Lucent to trial HSDPA network equipment for eMobile, while Lucent CEO Patricia Russo and eAccess/eMobile CEO Sachio Semmoto watch
US Ambassador Thomas Foley speaks a the conference announcing the cooperation between Fujitsu and Lucent to trial HSDPA network equipment for eMobile, while Lucent CEO Patricia Russo and eAccess/eMobile CEO Sachio Semmoto watch

Sachio Semmoto and Patricia Russo answering questions having presented their visions of new mobile services in Japan:

Lucent CEO Patricia Russo and eAccess/eMobile CEO Dr Sachio Semmoto at the conference announcing their joint network tests
Lucent CEO Patricia Russo and eAccess/eMobile CEO Dr Sachio Semmoto at the conference announcing their joint network tests

e-Mobile’s logo:

em = e-Mobile's interim logo (which was later changed)
em = e-Mobile’s interim logo (which was later changed)

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