Japanese superman Masayoshi Son invests in Supercell (interview for Talouselämä, Finland’s largest business newspaper)

softbank acquires supercell

Japanese superman Masayoshi Son invests in SuperCell – interview with Finland’s largest business newspaper Talouselämä

Talouselämä (Finland’s largest business newspaper)’s news editor Mirva Heiskanen interviewed me for their article entitled “Japanese superman Masayoshi Son invests in Supercell” (Supercellin ostaja Masayoshi Son on Japanin supermies).

More interviews by Gerhard Fasol.
To understand SoftBank better, read our report on SoftBank, an analysis of SoftBank, history, current data, and the context.

Here are some of my main points:

Japanese superman Masayoshi Son invests in SuperCell – SoftBank is a very large companies, and aiming to become the world’s largest company

SoftBank is really a very large company, driven by the charismatic founder Masayoshi Son. To get a feeling for the size of SoftBank, while the investment in Supercell is a large amount of money by anybody’s standards, its about 5% of SoftBank’s acquisitions this year alone (in addition to M&A type investments, SoftBank also invests substantial sums in networking equipment and other telecom business infrastructure and data centers).

Japanese superman Masayoshi Son invests in SuperCell – SoftBank invested in about 1500 companies, the most famous currently being Alibaba

Overall SoftBank invests in about 1500 companies or more: SoftBank takes a venture capital approach to this portfolio. Overall SoftBank investments are incredibly successful. As an example, look at the currently important Alibaba case:
Softbank acquired 36.7% of Alibaba in 2000 for US$ 20 million.
Alibaba’s market cap will be determined after its IPO, but currently figures between US$ 100 billion and even up to US$ 250 billion circulate. This would value SoftBank’s 36.7% stake in Alibaba at somewhere between US$ 36.7 billion and US$ 91 billion, a return on initial investment between 1835 and 4550 times!

While SoftBank’s overall portfolio is outstandingly successful, not every single investment is successful, as is normal for a venture type investment style.

Japanese superman Masayoshi Son invests in SuperCell – this year alone, SoftBank investments and acquisitions amount to about US$ 30 billion

This year SoftBank’s direct investments and acquisitions alone are on the order of US$ 30 billion and include:

  • Sprint US$ 21.6 billion + infrastructure investments
  • Clearwire (not sure if this is included in the Sprint figures)
  • eMobile/eAccess US$ 5 billion including debt
  • GungHo increase stake US$ 1/4 billion
  • Supercell US$ 1.5 billion
  • mobile phone distributor Brightstar which is another US$ 1.26 billion

Talouselämä questions and my answers:

  • What are SoftBank’s targets? SoftBank wants to become one of the most important companies globally, has a 30 year plan and a 300 your plan
  • How does SoftBank integrate acquisitions? Case-by-case. In some cases, e.g. Vodafone-Japan KK, Softbank totally absorbed the company and its assets became much of the starting point of SoftBank Mobile, however today’s SoftBank Mobile is a dramatically different company compared to Vodafone-Japan KK, which according to Masayoshi Son in recent interviews “was going south”.
  • How important are games for Softbank? SoftBank is major investor in GungHo, which is one of the world’s most successful smartphone game companies.
  • What other businesses does SoftBank concentrate on, and what kind of goals does it have? SoftBank today focusses on mobile communications and internet, however is also active in other areas. For example, SoftBank is aggressively building an energy business, with focus on renewable energy, which includes renewable energy investments in Mongolia for example. SoftBank‘s more than 1500 investments include Alibaba and Yahoo Japan KK.

To understand SoftBank better, read our report on SoftBank, an analysis of SoftBank, history, current data, and the context.

Understand Japan’s games sector and game makers

Report “Japan game makers and markets” (pdf file, approx 400 pages, 140 figures)
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Copyright (c) 2013 Eurotechnology Japan KK All Rights Reserved

Scandinavian renewable energy conference in Tokyo

Was invited to attend the Scandinavian renewable energy conference in Tokyo.

Topics covered:

  • Electricity infrastructure, market and governance
    • Electricity market reform in Japan
    • Power of network and for green growth – learning from nordic experiences
  • Nordic renewable energy sources
    • Nordic solution for bio energy production
    • Bioenergy from blue biomass
    • Nordic way to increase efficiency of hydro power production
    • Norwegian PV, the benefit to Japan
    • Offshore wind market and technology
  • Nordic experiences in green solutions
    • Agriculture districts as energy supplier
    • Smart grids for a sustainable society
    • Nordic way to increase efficiency of hydro power production
    • Sustainable Stockholm –the greater context
    • Hydrogen as energy carrier in future energy system
    • Geothermal Utilization
  • Panel discussion: sustainable future – the role of communities

A great day of talks and discussions was followed by a reception hosted by the Scandinavian Ambassadors and more great discussions.

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Supercell wins SoftBank and GungHo investment

softbank acquires supercell

Supercell investment by SoftBank and GungHo

Supercell investment leverages paradigm shift, time shift and market disconnects

Smartphones and the “freemium” business models are bringing a dual paradigm shift to games and create a new truly global market. To take advantage of this global paradigm shift, its necessary to overcome the cultural disconnects between markets. SoftBank and GungHo‘s investment in the Finnish smartphone/tablet game maker Supercell, announced on Oct. 15, will help to overcome the disconnect between Japan’s and other game markets for both Supercell and GungHo.

The disconnect between Japan and other countries is often surprising – when BusinessWeek in 2006 commented on rumors that SoftBank might introduce an Apple “iPod-Phone” to Japan, BusinessWeek remarked that “Apple would normally never talk to a small-fry such as SoftBank” …. at that time SoftBank’s annual revenues were about twice Apple’s, and BusinessWeek printed my correction pointing out that SoftBank even at that time was anything but a “small fry”.

One of SoftBank‘s aspects is it’s “time-shift” investment model, another is SoftBank‘s 30/300 year vision – both are important factors to understand the Supercell investment.

Supercell investment: Comparing Supercell's US$ 3 billion valuation with Japanese game companies (note that the market cap for the full SONY Group is shown here)
Comparing Supercell’s US$ 3 billion valuation with Japanese game companies (note that the market cap for the full SONY Group is shown here)

This Figure contrasts the market caps of new mobile and smartphone centric game companies (GungHo, Supercell, DeNA and GREE) with traditional console, video game and arcade game companies.

SoftBank announced that because of the majority investment, Supercell will become a subsidiary of SoftBank, and GungHo will account for Supercell’s profit/loss under the equity method.

Supercell investment: Comparing Supercell with Japanese game companies and SoftBank
Comparing Supercell with Japanese game companies and SoftBank

GungHo and Supercell both are top-ranking mobile game companies: GungHo inside Japan with “Puzzle and Dragons”, and Supercell outside Japan with “Hay Day” and “Clash of Clans”. Expect both to leverage each other’s resources.

Both GungHo and Supercell show explosive growth:
GungHo’s operating profits increased 4050% (x 40) for Jan-June 2013 compared to the same period one year earlier.
Supercell’s revenues (mainly in-game purchases) jumped 500x from EURO 151,000 in 2011 to EURO 78 million in 2012.

Culture can be an issue between Japan and other countries, however, SoftBank has invested in more than 1000 comparable companies, and many of SoftBank’s investments have been outstandingly successful including Alibaba and Yahoo.

However, investment and management support by SoftBank does not automatically guarantee success in Japan – despite SoftBank’s investment and support, Zynga closed operations in Japan earlier this year. Success in Japan will remain Supercell’s responsibility, despite SoftBank’s and GungHo’s help and investment – as Zynga can tell.

SoftBank aims for global No. 1 position: Learn more about SoftBank, Masayoshi Son, and his 30/300 year vision for SoftBank

Report on “SoftBank today and 300 year vision” (approx 120 page, pdf file)
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Copyright (c) 2013 Eurotechnology Japan KK All Rights Reserved

Rakuten vs SoftBank + Yahoo vs Amazon (Bloomberg and BusinessWeek interviews)

Hiroshi Mikitani Rakuten

Rakuten vs Softbank

Yahoo reduces e-commerce fees to compete harder with Rakuten’s online mall

Bloomberg interview and BusinessWeek interview about Yahoo KK’s aggressive reduction of ecommerce fees, a move increasing competition with Amazon.com and Rakuten.

How do you see Yahoo KK’s latest move to reduce or eliminate merchant’s fees? Do you see this as an attack by SoftBank/Yahoo on Rakuten?

SoftBank and Rakuten are clearly two very different companies – they don’t compete on the same ground. SoftBank is a telecom company with a Government spectrum license – a quasi-monopoly on a certain wavelength spectrum. Rakuten has no such monopoly, but is an internet based ecommerce company.

How do you see the future of Rakuten now?

Rakuten is clearly squeezed between SoftBank/Yahoo on one side and Amazon.com on the other side.

Amazon.com’s Jeff Bezos, SoftBank/Yahoo-KK’s Masayoshi Son and Rakuten’s Hiroshi Mikitani are clearly some of the most brilliant minds on this planet earth, so any battle between these three is phenomenal.

You ask about Hiroshi Mikitani/Rakuten – he clearly has his job cut out to compete with Masayoshi Son and Jeff Bezos – that’s not easy at all.

In particular, Amazon.com has a lot of strengths in areas, where Rakuten does not compete, e.g. AWS – Amazon Web Services, which is a very important cloud services company.

In terms of globalization, I also see challenges ahead for Rakuten. Even though Rakuten has recently decided to train staff in English conversation, its not a trivial job for an essentially Japanese company to globalize.

How do you see globalization of Rakuten and Softbank?

SoftBank clearly has taken a big step in acquiring Sprint in USA. SoftBank’s very big challenge is now to make Sprint a very big success and this will take some time.
Rakuten also has a huge challenge to globalize, and it will be interesting to see if Rakuten can become a global company

Copyright (c) 2013 ·Eurotechnology Japan KK All Rights Reserved

Japan’s Galapagos Effect

Gerhard Fasol Eurotechnology.com

How Japan can capture global value from its innovations

Dr. Gerhard Fasol dissects the history behind Japan’s unique international market separation

By Hugh Ashton

Originally published both in the print and online editions of the ACCJ Journal (Journal of the American Chamber of Commerce in Japan) on January 15, 2011 in “Chamber Events” based on a talk given by Dr. Gerhard Fasol to the Members of the American Chamber of Commerce (ACCJ) on July 12, 2010, at the Westin Hotel, Tokyo.

Background reading: Japan’s telecommunications industry landscape

(c) 2011 Copyright by The American Chamber of Commerce in Japan (ACCJ).
Reproduced with kind permission of ACCJ.

Dr. Gerhard Fasol, the founder and CEO of Eurotechnology Japan KK, spoke to ACCJ members about Japan’s “Galapagos Effect” at the Westin Hotel in Tokyo. The “Galapagos Effect,” for those unfamiliar with the term, is used to describe Japan’s unique culture of technology that has not expanded beyond Japan’s borders, in the same way that the Galapagos Islands exemplify unique evolutionary developments in nature.

Dr. Gerhard Fasol
Dr. Gerhard Fasol, CEO of Eurotechnology Japan KK

Where Japan Leads

Investment is a prime reason why such developments as Internet-related mobile communications are so advanced in Japan. As Fasol pointed out, Japan has seven times the number of 3G base stations as the United Kingdom. Many of the related technical developments in mobile handsets that are only just coming onto the market outside Japan have been standard for many years in this country—Fasol gave high-quality camera phones as an example.

Quoting a Nokia spokesman, he claimed one reason for this leap was that Europe is conservative in regards to standards, which take a long time to develop and ratify in contrast to Japan. He amplified the Galapagos analogy by stating, “Japan is a Galapagos island, and doesn’t have to care about standards.”

Fasol also claimed that Japan is 10 to 15 years ahead of other nations in its use of electronic money. He contrasted Europe’s fragmented and overly bureaucratic nature with Japan’s, where large decisions—such as
i-Mode and Suica—can be made by a mere two or three people, which may come as a surprise to those who see Japan as a bureaucratic nightmare.

The reverse side of the Galapagos effect, however, is that Japanese phones designed for the home market fail to find buyers outside Japan. Electronic money is another area where Japanese technology seems destined to remain within the borders of Japan, despite the fact it is now quite common and accounts for a relatively large proportion of currency in circulation at about two percent. Fasol claimed that the U.S. and Europe are not yet ready for the mass introduction of such a payment system like Japan. In the long term, he believes, non-Japanese global giants will probably win out over the Japanese innovators.

Shedding Light on Genius

Another area where Japan has led innovations in the commercialization of technology is the revolution in lighting, which is poised to offer new environmentally-friendly illumination options. Based on the invention of the blue LED by Shuji Nakamura, the new lighting systems are also wallet-friendly in that they offer a 6,000-fold advantage in terms of price for the same amount of light over kerosene-powered lighting, still a staple in many parts of the world.

However, Nakamura was largely ignored by the Japanese business community; he is not even named on the website of the company that employed him (Nichia), and is now working at a university in California—Tokyo University claimed they wanted more “ordinary professors.” According to Fasol, the “Galapagos effect” means that there is no room or need for geniuses like Nakamura in Japan.

Economy

Up to 1995, Japan’s economy was growing, but is now static, a unique situation within the G8. Indeed, extrapolated from present trends, South Korea’s economy could overtake Japan’s in 2022.

Japan has a huge electronics sector, from giants to smaller specialist makers with a $600 million market about the same as the Netherlands. However, the growth is almost zero compared with that of 10 years ago. The net income of the top 20 companies of the sector is actually less than that of a single U.S. company, GE or of Korean rival, Samsung. This has a disadvantageous effect on pension funds, who are the major shareholders of these companies, but the governance of Japanese corporate affairs by shareholders is much less than, say, in the U.S. Still, Japan enjoys a very large national market (unlike the UK, for example), which can help companies survive. On the other hand, this may have prevented companies from “going global” as their internal market has reached saturation. Fasol mentions rice cookers as an example of a consumer durable that is not purchased frequently, and accordingly has a relatively small and finite market footprint. Even so, every major electrical manufacturer designs and produces a range of rice cookers, with a very low profit margin of well under one percent, which may be part of the legacy of the zaibatsu (the large pre-war conglomerates). This legacy means that most present-day conglomerates feel the need to do everything—for instance, there are three global makers of trains, but ten in Japan.

The Galapagos Study Group

Fasol then went on to describe the 26-person interdisciplinary Galapagos Study Group—of which he was the only non-Japanese member—which met monthly for a year and concentrated on the mobile phone industry.

The results of these meetings were summarized in three sets of recommendations to telecom carriers, electrical manufacturers, and content companies, with the second category receiving the recommendations that Fasol described as most radical.

He surprised his listeners by saying, “I think it would be best for Japan if in five years or so there were no more Hitachi, or Fujitsu, or Toshiba.” This, of course, was not meant as a direct attack on these specific companies, but as an attack on their conglomerate nature. Instead of the current state, he suggested a move towards smaller companies, focused on profitable businesses, would be preferable and would restart growth.

On the content side, Fasol claims that Japan is the only country in the world with the intellectual and creative resources to create characters that can stand up to Mickey Mouse and the Disney empire, but has not succeeded in creating global businesses based on Pikachu or Doraemon. Accordingly, the committee made a recommendation that platforms similar to Disney be created in order to create global businesses using such characters.

Dr. Gerhard Fasol
Dr. Gerhard Fasol, CEO of Eurotechnology Japan KK

Coming to Japan from the Outside

On the subject of breaking into “the Galapagos market,” Fasol pointed out that good foreign companies can succeed in Japan if they know the market. As an example, he cites traffic lights, whose specifications in Japan are controlled by the police. Any company failing to recognize this kind of local quirk, no matter what its global standing, is doomed to failure when it comes to Japan. Examples of dramatic failures he cited were Nokia, Nasdaq, and Vodafone. To paraphrase the traditional real estate tag, Fasol claimed that the three biggest mistakes foreign companies coming to Japan make are “arrogance, arrogance and arrogance.” He claimed that this has nothing to do with Japan’s closed markets, quoting the iPhone’s success as an example.

He pointed out that there are other reasons for the failure of foreign entrants. Apart from the failure to listen to customers and understand the market, reasons include partnership with the wrong joint venture partners, and the management of Japanese ventures by managers who fail to understand the country.

However, the Japanese service lifestyle, allied with what he terms a “fashion society,” is a great opportunity for outsiders to break into the Galapagos market, and Fasol claimed that foreign companies can tap Japan’s creativity and use it to their advantage.

He also claimed that the relative isolation of Japan from global standards and practices in some cases actually enriches the global experience. But at the same time this also introduces life-threatening issues for Japan and this isolation must be addressed through two-way dialog from inside and outside of Japan.

(c) 2011 Copyright by The American Chamber of Commerce in Japan (ACCJ).
Reproduced with kind permission of ACCJ.


Download Gerhard Fasol’s lecture slides at Stanford University: “New opportunities vs old mistakes – foreign companies in Japan’s high-tech markets”

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Read more about Japan’s “Galapagos effect” here:

Japan game market disruption: GungHo + DeNA + GREE overtake Japan’s game icons

Combined operating income of Japan's major game companies

Japan game market disruption: new smartphone game companies overtake Japan’s game icons like Nintendo in income

[日本語版はこちらへ]

Since last financial year (ended March 31, 2013), three newcomers (GungHo, DeNA, and GREE) combined achieved higher operating income and higher net income than all 9 iconic Japanese game companies (Nintendo + SONY-Games + SegaSammy + BandaiNamco + Konami + TakaraTomy + SquareEnix + Capcom + TecmoKoei) combined.

While the newcomer’s revenues are increasing (except for GREE), the traditional 9 game companies’ revenues peaked in 2008, and have been falling rapidly ever since.

Clearly Japan’s the 2003-2005 mergers in Japan’s game sector did not make the sector “future proof” – more dramatic changes will be either initiated by the iconic incumbents, or imposed on them from newcomers such as GungHo.

Note that the position of foreign entrants remain weak in Japan’s game market overall.

Read more in the article below or in our report on “Japan’s game makers and markets”, and in the following post “Brutal disruption of Japan’s Game Markets”.

Three new game companies (GungHo, DeNA, GREE) overtake Japan's 9 iconic game companies in operating profits
Three new game companies (GungHo, DeNA, GREE) overtake Japan’s 9 iconic game companies in operating profits (note that the last data point for 2013 for GungHo is only for the first 6 months, i.e. full year results will show that the “new” game companies are doing even better compared to the “old” game companies than visible in this figure)
Three newcomers (GungHo, DeNA, GREE) achieve higher net profits than all 9 Japanese game icons combined
Three newcomers (GungHo, DeNA, GREE) achieve higher net profits than all 9 Japanese game icons combined (note that the last data point for 2013 for GungHo is only for the first 6 months, i.e. full year results will show that the “new” game companies are doing even better compared to the “old” game companies than visible in this figure)

Japan game market disruption: online and smartphone came company GungHo with Puzzle and Dragons

GungHo started as OnSale KK, a joint-venture between SoftBank and the US company OnSale Inc., the purpose of this JV was Japan market entry for this US company, an ecommerce company.
OnSale KK pivoted from ecommerce to games and started to distribute the Korean game Ragnarok and others, and changed its name to GungHo.
GungHo’s breakthrough came with “Puzzle and Dragons” – Jan-June 2013 operating profits increased 4050.1% (four thousand fifty percent) compared to the same period one year ago. GungHo is part of the SoftBank group.
More in our report on “Japan’s game makers and markets”

Japan game market disruption: GREE

GREE on the other hand – although a successful new venture in Japan’s game sector – is not doing so well currently: reported revenues and income have both been falling. Essentially, GREE has difficulties to implement the plan to build a global business based on their Japanese methods and business models. The factors are both “hard” and “soft”, i.e. business models, and human factors.
Details on GREE’s performance, and reasons for GREE’s current issues in our report on “Japan’s game makers and markets”

Copyright·©2013 ·Eurotechnology Japan KK·All Rights Reserved·

Japan game sector disruption

Japan smartphone game business

Japan’s iconic game companies (Nintendo, Sony, Sega-Sammy, Bandai-Namco, Konami, Takara-Tomy, Square-Enix, Capcom, Tecmo-Koei) see brutal disruption by smart phone games

Japan game sector disruption: Three newcomers (GREE, DeNA and GungHo) achieve higher operating income than all top 9 incumbent game companies combined

Japan’s top 9 iconic game companies, Nintendo, Sony, Sega-Sammy, Bandai-Namco, Konami, Takara-Tomy, Square-Enix, Capcom, Tecmo-Koei created much of the world’s games markets, and many of the world’s most loved game characters.

They are now seeing brutal disruption.

Japan game sector disruption

With the Financial Year ending March 31, 2013, for the first time, just three Japanese newcomers (GREE, DeNA and GungHo) achieved higher operating income than all top 9 Japanese iconic incumbent game makers:

In FY2012 combined operating income of all 9 incumbent game companies was YEN 67.6 billion (US$ 700 million), combined operating income of the 3 newcomers was YEN 174 billion (US$ 1.8 billion) – even though for GungHo only the first 6 months of 2013 are included in the calculation.

More in our report on “Japan’s game makers and markets”, which we frequently update – subscribe to get the updates.

Operating income of Japan's top 9 games companies declined steadily since 2009 - combined operating income for FY2012 was YEN 67.6 billion (US$ 700 million)
Operating income of Japan’s top 9 games companies declined steadily since 2009 – combined operating income for FY2012 was YEN 67.6 billion (US$ 700 million)
In 2013, three newcomers (GREE, DeNA, GungHo) achieved higher operating income than all nine established Japanese game makers. Combined operating income for FY2012 was YEN 174 billion (US$ 1.8 billion) 
In 2013, three newcomers (GREE, DeNA, GungHo) achieved higher operating income than all nine established Japanese game makers. Combined operating income for FY2012 was YEN 174 billion (US$ 1.8 billion) 

The incumbents: Nintendo, Sony, Sega-Sammy, Bandai-Namco, Konami, Takara-Tomy, Square-Enix, Capcom, Tecmo-Koei

Because of its size, Nintendo has the greatest weight in the overall performance of Japan’s traditional game sector. Nintendo has been dramatically affected by the shift from traditional game consoles to smartphones. Still, Nintendo (as all other Japanese iconic game companies) has tremendous resources, tremendous creativity, globally loved characters and brands, and huge cash reserves. I don’t think that Nintendo (and other Japanese game companies) risk as much to follow Nokia and RIM/BlackBerry’s fate, but may be more resilient. However, there has been substantial consolidation in Japan’s games sector of recent years, and the current challenges could lead to more M&A in Japan’s games sector.

The disruptors

We have only picked three important new market entrants – there are many more in Japan’s vibrant mobile game venture scene. (Read more in our report on “Japan’s game makers and markets”).

DeNA

DeNA initially started as a mobile auction group, and sees continuous strong growth and high margins.

GREE

Of these three, GREE is currently suffering some set-backs originating from GREE’s business model. GREE started as a SNS and social game platform on Japan’s “galake” (Galapagos Keitai) relying on Japan’s mobile internet services i-Mode, EZweb and Yahoo-Mobile, where operators traditionally take 9% commissions. Initially GREE tried to transfer this “platform on platform” business model to other countries, but this does not seem to work out. So GREE is now pivoting to original games, and has seen setbacks.

GungHo

GungHo started as a joint-venture with a US company, the purpose of this JV was Japan market entry for this US company. GungHo then pivoted away from this joint-venture to become a games company, and produced a series of games, which all did well, but not extraordinarily well. That is, until GungHo created “Puzzle and Dragons”, which is growing spectacularly well: Jan-June 2013 operating profits increased 4050.1% (four thousand fifty percent) compared to the same period one year ago, and net profits increased 2507.8% (two thousand seven percent) compared to Jan-June one year ago.

The disruption

The shift to smartphones is hitting Japanese traditional iconic game makers from all sides:

  • the shift from TV to tablets and mobile phones
  • the shift from dedicated game consoles to smart phones and tablets
  • the shift from Japan’s “galake” feature phones to smart phones
  • the shift in business model from traditional US$ 40-60 game cassettes-type to free game downloads with in-game purchases and advertising
  • …and more

Japan’s game sector report

Learn more: read our report on Japan’s game makers and markets
(approx. 400 pages, pdf file)
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