How many iPhones did SoftBank sell in Japan during July?
Our estimate: between 75,000 – 125,000. Read on about how we arrived at this estimate.
Net growth of mobile subscription numbers in Japan (Japan’s mobile market grows by about 5.5 million per year – for more analysis read our JCOMM-Report).
How did we arrive at the estimate of 75,000-125,000 iPhones sold in Japan during July?
When we analyze the Figure above, we can see that SoftBank‘s subscriber numbers increased by 158,900 during June 2008, and the monthly increase jumped to 215,400 during July 2008. We can also see that for no other month except for March 2006, March 2007, and March 2008 was there such a jump (in Japan March is the month of peak mobile phone sales, because new jobs traditionally start with the beginning of the financial year on April, 1). Since SoftBank did not introduce any other spectacular phones during July 2008, we can safely assume that most of the 56,500 net increase jump from June to July are iPhone sales to new subscribers, or new subscriptions for second phones, or number portability users moving over from DoCoMo or KDDI. However, this number would not count current SoftBank subscribers who are upgrading existing subscriptions from a previous older phone to an iPhone. Since we are not aware that SoftBank announces this number, we need to estimate it. If we assume that there were equal numbers of new subscriptions for iPhones as replacements, we would arrive at an estimate of 100,000 iPhones sold during July 2008 in Japan. If we estimate, that this second assumption has a +/- 50% error margin, then we arrive at an estimate of between 75,000-125,000 iPhones sold in Japan during July 2008.
Our estimate: about 640,000 – 1 Million iPhones may be sold in Japan during 2008:
If we assume that iPhone sales in Japan will continue at the current rate, then we can estimate that between 640,000 – 1 Million iPhones could be sold during the remaining part of 2008 in Japan, which would be about 1.2% – 2% of mobile phones sold during 2008.
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